烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压，PVC：短期震荡，后期仍有压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - High - profit and high - production situations will continuously affect caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profit will be an annual - level strategy. Currently, the main contract price is at a nearly 20% discount to the spot price, limiting short - term downward space. Wait for spot price reduction and basis convergence [5][6]. - Despite potential profit compression, caustic soda may rebound. In the past three years, seasonal peaks saw profits over 1,000 yuan/ton due to short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [6]. - In the second half of the year, focus on alumina and export - related stockpiling, and non - aluminum sector stockpiling during the "Golden September and Silver October". When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda shortages are likely. However, the inventory is currently increasing [6]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. After the discount is filled, prices will continue to face pressure. Given weak demand expectations, the logic of shorting profit remains valid. But low prices may stimulate downstream stockpiling, and seasonal demand still exists, so positive spreads can be considered based on downstream stockpiling rhythm [6]. 2.2 PVC - Fundamentally, the current chlor - alkali integration in the northwest still has profits. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is hard to ease, leading to continuous shorting of chlor - alkali profits [10]. - The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term. PVC maintenance is lower than in 2023. With declining chlor - alkali costs and good caustic soda demand in 2025, the chlor - alkali industry uses alkali profits to offset chlorine losses, making large - scale PVC production cuts due to losses more difficult. Moreover, more capacities are expected to be put into operation, especially 1.1 million tons in June - July [10]. - High - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. The sustainability of PVC exports needs further observation. Domestically, demand from PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [10]. - Overall, the downward pressure on PVC remains. Profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand [10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable caustic soda price in Shandong is about 2,656 yuan/ton [16]. - The caustic soda 09 basis is strengthening, and the 7 - 9 spread is relatively strong [21]. - Exports still support caustic soda in June. In 2024, China exported 3.08 million tons of caustic soda, a 23.86% year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 1.349 million tons, a 70.1% year - on - year increase. It is expected to reach 4 million tons in 2025, a 30% increase from the previous year [25][28]. - The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is limited. Weak demand in South China due to reduced alumina production in Guangxi restricts the expansion of the arbitrage space. However, Southeast Electrochemical's planned maintenance in June may support prices in South China [34][38]. - The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is below the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [39]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The market shows a pattern of declining production and rising inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 80.9%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 405,300 tons (wet tons), a 6.07% week - on - week and 6.11% year - on - year increase [45][46]. - Pay attention to the maintenance scale from June to August. In June, maintenance is concentrated in Shandong. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, including Wuhai Chemical, Hubei Yihua, etc. [50]. - In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity is 2.55 million tons, but the actual capacity expansion may be lower than expected, with a capacity growth rate of about 2%. Consider the impact of the continuous losses in the chlorine - consuming downstream, especially PVC. Focus on the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang in June - July [51][54]. - Liquid chlorine prices have rebounded, and caustic soda prices are stable. The chlor - alkali profit is at a three - year high. Current profit conditions are good, and enterprises have no incentive to cut production [55][58]. - In the chlorine - consuming downstream, the开工 rate of propylene oxide is low, and profits are also low. The开工 rate of epichlorohydrin is declining, and the glycerol method is making losses. The profits of dichloromethane and trichloromethane are decreasing [60][66][71]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina production is increasing, with rising inventory and profits. New alumina capacities are still being put into operation in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 12.3 million tons. Focus on the commissioning time of 1 million tons of Weiqiao, 1.6 million tons of Wenfeng's three - line project, and 1 million tons of Guangxi Guangtou [78][81]. - The pulp industry is expanding capacity, but it is the off - season for terminal demand. The paper product industry's开工 rate is lower than the same period last year [82][92]. - The开工 rate of viscose staple fiber is stable, and the开工 rate of printing and dyeing is declining. The short - term demand change is not significant [93]. - The开工 rate of the water treatment industry is decreasing month - on - month, while the开工 rate of the ternary precursor industry is stable [99][101]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is strengthening, and the 9 - 1 spread is oscillating strongly [107]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC开工 rate is decreasing month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.25%, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease and a 3.23% year - on - year increase. The calcium carbide method is at 81.77%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease and a 6.32% year - on - year increase. The ethylene method is at 72.59%, a 3.94% week - on - week decrease and a 5.11% year - on - year decrease [111]. - From June to August 2025, more PVC maintenance is planned in the northwest. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, and there will be concentrated capacity releases in June - July, with an expected 1.1 million tons [112][114]. - By 2025, a total of 2.1 million tons of new PVC capacity will be put into operation, mostly ethylene - based with high commissioning certainty. The integrated plant in the northwest has good profits, and special attention should be paid to caustic soda profits in 2025 [113][116]. - PVC production enterprises are slightly reducing inventory, and social inventory is also decreasing [118]. - Real estate demand related to PVC is still weak. The export volume from January to April was 1.3366 million tons. Although there is still some demand in the export end, the export market is expected to weaken due to the Indian rainy season and BIS policies. The number of PVC warehouse receipts has not increased significantly [121][135][137].