能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250615

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bullish [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is bullish due to the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which drives up international energy prices. However, in the medium - term, the supply in the synthetic rubber industry chain remains high, and the supply growth rate exceeds the demand growth rate, so there is still fundamental pressure [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - Futures Static Valuation: The fundamental static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,100 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,100 yuan/ton [4]. - Butadiene Fundamentals: Asian butadiene prices are stable, and domestic butadiene prices fluctuate around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month. The short - term import volume is neutral. The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to show a pattern of support during fluctuations [4]. - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. The supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, and alternative demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - Butadiene Rubber Futures: In the short term, the synthetic rubber may follow the upward trend of oil products. In the medium term, the fundamental pressure is still high. The current main contradiction in the market is the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - Strategy: Bullish in the short - term for single - side trading; the spread between NR and BR is expected to narrow [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - Pricing Stage: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - Capacity Expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - New Capacity: In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [11]. - Supply - side Operating Rate: The overall operating rate is high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to the concentrated maintenance of some ethylene plants [4]. - Demand - side: The demand from butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The output is affected by the operating rate. Some enterprises are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month [4][40]. - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Cost and Profit: The processing profit is approaching the break - even point, and the cost is mainly determined by butadiene prices [4][42]. - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Import and Export: The import and export volumes show certain trends over time, but specific data are not deeply analyzed in the report [45][46]. - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Inventory: The inventory is at a high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory [50][51]. - Butadiene Rubber Demand - Tires: The inventory and operating rate of tires in Shandong Province are used to reflect the demand for butadiene rubber. The inventory and operating rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires show different trends [54][55].