超长债周报：隔夜利率回落至1.4%以下，超长债小涨-20250615

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Last week, the release of May inflation and export data showed persistent deflationary pressure and an accelerated decline in exports. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held, with tariffs remaining at the level of the Geneva talks. The weakening economy supported a continued decline in bond yields, and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly last week and was quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, while the variety spread widened [1][11][37]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 13, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate in April was about 4.1%, down 0.8% from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. In May, CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, indicating persistent deflation risks. With the recent accelerated decline in May exports, a negative month - on - month change in domestic housing prices, and a continued decline in capital interest rates, bond market sentiment improved. It is expected that the bond market is more likely to continue rising in the short term. However, the current term spread of the 30 - year treasury bond is still low, with limited spread protection [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 13, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Considering domestic economic data, the estimated year - on - year GDP growth rate in April was about 4.1%, down 0.8% from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. In May, CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, indicating persistent deflation risks. With the recent accelerated decline in May exports, a negative month - on - month change in domestic housing prices, and a continued decline in capital interest rates, bond market sentiment improved. It is expected that the bond market is more likely to continue rising in the short term. However, the current variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is still low, with limited spread protection [3][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Super - long Bond Review - Last week, due to the release of May inflation and export data showing deflationary pressure and an accelerated decline in exports, along with the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting and stable tariffs, the weak economy led to a decline in bond yields, and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][11]. 2. Super - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bond: As of June 13, the 30 - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP, at a low historical level. April's economy showed resilience with an estimated GDP growth of 4.1% year - on - year, down 0.8% from March but above the annual target. May's CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, with deflation risks. With export decline, negative housing price growth, and falling capital rates, the bond market is likely to rise in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: As of June 13, the 20 - year CDB - treasury bond spread was 4BP, at an extremely low historical level. April's economy showed resilience with an estimated GDP growth of 4.1% year - on - year, down 0.8% from March but above the annual target. May's CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, with deflation risks. With export decline, negative housing price growth, and falling capital rates, the bond market is likely to rise in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3. Super - long Bond Basic Overview - As of May 31, the balance of super - long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds account for 26.1%, local government bonds 67.8%, etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. 4. Primary Market - Weekly Issuance: Last week (June 9 - 13, 2025), 641 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, a significant decrease compared to the previous week. By variety, local government bonds were 306 billion yuan, government - supported institutional bonds 50 billion yuan, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds were 359 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds 32 billion yuan, and 30 - year bonds 250 billion yuan [19]. - This Week's Pending Issuance: The announced issuance plan for this week is 1029 billion yuan, including 500 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds, 449 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds, and 80 billion yuan of ultra - long corporate bonds [24]. 5. Secondary Market - Trading Volume: Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 8968 billion yuan, accounting for 10.9% of the total bond turnover. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds had a turnover of 6290 billion yuan, ultra - long local bonds 2411 billion yuan, etc. The trading activity increased slightly compared to the previous week [26][27]. - Yield: Due to economic factors, bond yields declined last week. For treasury bonds, 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year yields changed by - 3BP, - 4BP, - 3BP, and - 3BP respectively. Similar changes occurred in CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds [37]. - Spread Analysis: - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP, down 2BP from the previous week, at the 4% percentile since 2010 [44]. - Variety Spread: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury bond spread was 4BP, and the 20 - year railway - treasury bond spread was 8BP, up 3BP from the previous week, at the 6% and 5% percentiles since 2010 respectively [49]. 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.50 yuan, an increase of 0.60%. The total trading volume was 321,700 lots (36,864 lots), and the open interest was 124,600 lots (6,864 lots). Both trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared to the previous week [52].