美豆周度报告-20250615

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is generally oscillating with a strengthening bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Directory Market Price - This week, the US soybean price first declined and then rose. The price dropped at the beginning of the week due to good weather in the US soybean - growing areas, but rallied on Friday night as all contracts of US soybean oil hit the daily limit on the bio - fuel blending side [8] - This week, the US soybean meal price continued to fall. After the significant positive news on the bio - fuel blending side of US soybean oil on Friday, the price of US soybean meal was further pressured [11] - Policy support led to a significant increase in the price of US soybean oil. The Trump administration proposed allowing refiners to blend more bio - fuels into gasoline and diesel next year, causing the price of soybean oil, the main raw material for biodiesel, to rise by 6.2%, the largest increase since January 10. If the policy is fully implemented, it is expected to drive the price of US soybean oil up to around 60 cents per pound [14] - Last week, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports increased, and the purchase price at farms (in Iowa) also rose. The spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa remained basically stable. In Brazil, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso state and the overall Brazilian spot price were basically stable [16][18][20] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing areas has improved, with the drought rate at 39% this week compared to 45% last week. The temperature in US soybean - growing areas is normal, and the forecast for the next two weeks indicates good precipitation in the main US soybean - growing areas, with no drought threat [27][30][32] - Brazil has entered the dry season, with less precipitation in most areas. In Argentina, the central and northern production areas have more precipitation, and the temperature is basically normal [34][36] - The US soybean planting progress is 90%, up from 84% last week, approaching the end. The US corn planting progress is 97%, up from 93% last week, and the planting work is basically completed [39][41] Demand Factors - As of June 6, the US soybean crushing profit was $1.49 per bushel, down from $1.9 last week [44] - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 453,300 tons, up from 308,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 547,000 tons, up from 268,300 tons last week. The weekly net sales volume was 61,300 tons, down from 194,300 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 58,000 tons, up from 3,500 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [46][48][50][52][54] Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.184, indicating a basically neutral state [57] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The US soybean planting cost has decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian soybean cost has also decreased year - on - year [59][63][64] - In terms of CFTC positions, the net long position of soybeans is 54,800 lots, up from 35,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil is 33,900 lots, down from 34,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal is 75,800 lots, down from 86,400 lots last week [65][67][69]