豆粕：生柴政策利多美豆，偏强震荡，豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，偏强震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the next week (06.16 - 06.20), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. The U.S. biodiesel policy is unexpectedly positive, driving up the U.S. soybean futures price and supporting the soybean meal price. For domestic soybeans, the market is waiting for the release of Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybeans. In the future, attention should be paid to the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas and trade negotiations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 U.S. Soybean Futures Market - Last week (06.09 - 06.13), the U.S. soybean futures price first declined and then rose. The decline was due to good weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas, lack of agricultural details in China - U.S. trade negotiations, and concerns about U.S. soybean demand. The rise was because the biofuel blending requirements proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency were higher than industry expectations, which was beneficial to boosting U.S. soybean oil and soybean demand. There were no large - scale export sales orders for U.S. soybeans during the week. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of June 13, the main 07 contract of U.S. soybeans had a weekly increase of 0.99%, and the main 07 contract of U.S. soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 1.52% [1]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures Market - Last week (06.09 - 06.13), the domestic soybean meal futures price "first rose, then fell, and fluctuated strongly", while the soybean futures price rose. For soybean meal, the price was strong mainly due to China - U.S. trade talks and positive market sentiment. The subsequent slight decline was because the sharp rise in crude oil drove up the price of soybean oil, affected by the "oil - strong, meal - weak seesaw" effect. For soybeans, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The main contract was shifted to the 2509 contract. The previous price of this contract was relatively low, and it made up for the increase recently affected by the strong surrounding market. Although there was an expectation of the release of Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybeans, the impact on the futures market was small. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of June 13, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.03%, and the main a2509 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 3.39% [2]. 3.3 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - U.S. soybean sales and shipment: In the week of June 5, for 2024/25, the U.S. soybean export shipment was about 450,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 47%; the cumulative export shipment was about 45.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.48 million tons (about 23.88 million tons in the same period last year). The current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans were about 60,000 tons (about 190,000 tons in the previous week); the next - market - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 58,000 tons (about 3,600 tons in the previous week), with a total of about 118,000 tons (about 193,600 tons in the previous week), at the lower end of the expectation (100,000 - 700,000 tons). The current - crop - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans to China were 0 ( - 100 tons in the previous week), and the next - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - U.S. soybean planting progress and quality: As of the week of June 9, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 90%, compared with 87% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 88%. The good - to - excellent rate was 68%, compared with 67% in the previous week and 72% in the same period last year [2]. - Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crushing profit: As of the week of June 13, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for July - September delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit increased week - on - week [2]. - Weather forecast in U.S. soybean - producing areas: According to the weather forecast on June 14, in the next two weeks (June 15 - June 29), there will be more precipitation and higher temperatures in the U.S. soybean - producing areas, with a neutral impact [2]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of June 13, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 350,000 tons (mainly due to the large - scale trading of basis contracts from October 2025 to January 2026), compared with about 120,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - Pick - up volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of June 13, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 195,000 tons, compared with about 200,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of June 13, the weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 149 yuan/ton, compared with about - 61 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 112 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of June 6, the inventory of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 320,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 21% and a year - on - year decrease of about 60% [4]. - Crushing volume: The soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to rise next week. According to the forecast of Steel Union (125 oil mills), as of the week of June 13, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.26 million tons (2.24 million tons in the previous week and 1.9 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 63.5% (63% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (June 14 - June 20), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.46 million tons (1.94 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 69% (55% in the same period last year) [4]. 3.5 Domestic Soybean Spot Market - Soybean price: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean soybeans passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,220 - 4,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In some inland regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of edible soybeans from the Northeast (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade, packaged, "tower - selected" Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,620 - 4,840 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [5]. - Market situation in the Northeast production area: There was little remaining grain in the Northeast production area, and the purchase was slow. Due to the reduction of soybean sources at the grass - roots level and the strong soybean futures price, a few grain - holding entities raised their asking prices. Traders' purchases were slow, mainly focusing on inventory reduction or purchasing according to orders [5]. - Market expectation of reserve soybean release: The market is currently focused on when the reserve soybeans will be put into the market. There are rumors that the Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybeans may start to be sold next week, subject to the official website announcement [5]. - Demand in the sales area: The demand in the sales area was weak. After mid - June, in the hot and humid weather, the terminal market's demand for soybean products decreased. Various soybean product factories limited or stopped production due to the slow sales of downstream products, which affected the procurement enthusiasm for raw soybeans [5].