Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks still pose disturbances to the market. The A-share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. To break out of the current oscillation pattern and elevate the valuation again, policy - driven fiscal expansion, intensified real - estate stabilization measures, and rapid advancement of supply - side reform are required [2][10] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events Next Week's View - Geopolitical risks continue to affect the market. The global stock market showed a roller - coaster trend this week, with the MSCI Global Index rising in the first four days and falling sharply on Friday. The A - share market remained in a high - level oscillation. The Sino - US talks in London earlier this week alleviated trade pressure, but the conflict between Israel and Iran on Friday increased geopolitical risks and impacted global risk assets, causing a sharp decline in the A - share market. Domestically, the economic momentum is weakening, and the abnormal valuation expansion of the A - share market is prominent [2][10] This Week's Key Events - On June 9th, China's May CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, PPI was down 3.3% year - on - year, exports grew 4.8% year - on - year, and imports fell 3.4% year - on - year. The State Council held a special learning meeting on promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a document on improving people's livelihood [11][12][13] - On June 10th, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a document on promoting in - depth reform in Shenzhen, and the Chinese President had a phone call with the South Korean President to ensure the healthy development of Sino - South Korean relations [15][16] - On June 11th, China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call and the Geneva talks. China will implement zero - tariff measures for 100% of tariff items for 53 African diplomatic countries [17][18] - On June 12th, China and the US agreed to further play the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism and maintain communication [19][20] - On June 13th, China's M2 in May increased 7.9% year - on - year, and the Chinese President will attend the Second China - Central Asia Summit [21][22] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From June 9th to June 13th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 0.25%, with emerging markets (+0.60%) > developed markets (-0.35%) > frontier markets (-0.47%). The stock index of Taiwan, China rose 3.64%, leading the world, while the German stock market fell 1.99%, performing the worst globally [1][23] Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From June 9th to June 13th, Chinese equity assets corrected. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1371.8 billion yuan, an increase of 171.7 billion yuan compared with last week. The A - share market was differentiated, with the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange performing poorly, while the ChiNext Index rose slightly by 0.22% [1][26] Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was energy (+5.11%), and the poorly performing industry was finance (-1.80%). In the Chinese market, energy led the rise (+2.27%), and daily consumption led the decline (-3.14%) [30] Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China's A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 14 rose (23 last week) and 16 fell (7 last week). The leading industry was non - ferrous metals (+3.95%), and the industry with the largest decline was food and beverages (-4.42%) [1][31] Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles - This week, the value style outperformed the growth style, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards mid - cap stocks [36] Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][40] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report provides the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, etc. [43] Primary Industry Valuation - The report presents the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [44] Equity Risk Premium of Broad - Based Indexes - The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERPs of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [45][50] Consensus Expected Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indexes - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 remained flat at 8.16%, and that in 2026 was lowered to 8.12%. The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 36.79%, and that in 2026 was raised to 16.16%. The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 1.36%, and that in 2026 was raised to 19.38% [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields declined, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [59] Tracking of Trading - Type Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 18.5 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 12.6 billion yuan compared with last week [61] Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 29 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.5 billion, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 0.2 billion, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3 billion, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.9 billion [65][66][70] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Supply Side: Tire Operating Rate Rebounded - The tire operating rate rebounded, and relevant charts show the national blast furnace operating rate, coking enterprise operating rate, and domestic crude steel daily output [72][74][75] Consumption Side: The Transaction Volume of New Homes Declined Significantly - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities declined significantly, and the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales declined. The price of crude oil rose to around $75 per barrel [81][91] Inflation Observation: Energy Prices Rose Significantly - Energy prices rose significantly, production material prices fluctuated at a low level, and agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [93][94]
地缘风险扩散，股指高位回调
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-15 11:45