Changjiang Securities·2025-06-15 12:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The necessity for marginal easing in the industry is gradually increasing, with the policy goal of stabilizing the market becoming more proactive. However, since April, the marginal downward pressure has intensified [2][4] - The current position of development stocks is not high, indicating that the necessity for policy easing is increasing. Investors are advised to selectively allocate and wait for trading windows, while focusing on leading companies with stable cash flows and potential high dividends in commercial, brokerage, and property management sectors as strategic opportunities [2][4][8] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.27% this week, with an excess return of -1.02% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 25th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 6.14%, with an excess return of -4.35%, ranking 30th out of 32 [5][14] Policy Developments - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasized the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality market growth. Policies will support the construction of "good houses" and optimize existing policies to stabilize expectations and activate demand [6][16] - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, are proposing new policies to support housing purchases, including the withdrawal of purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [6][16] Sales Data - In sample cities, new home and second-hand home registrations are fluctuating at low levels. The new home transaction area in 37 cities showed a four-week rolling year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, while second-hand homes increased by 7.7% [7][18] - As of June 13, the new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, while second-hand homes increased by 11.6% [7][18] Weekly Highlights - The downward slope of the industry has been expanding since Q2, with the policy goal of stabilizing the market facing pressure. The marginal easing of industrial policies is becoming clearer, although the pace and intensity need further discussion [8][4]