KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-06-15 12:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that after a rapid increase in pig slaughtering, pig prices have stabilized, with expectations of limited downward pressure in the short term. The overall supply of pigs is entering a contraction phase, leading to an upward trend in pig prices in Q3 2025 [4][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a decline for four consecutive months, which may exert pressure on the CPI target for 2025. The report anticipates that policy measures will be implemented to support pig prices and mitigate their negative impact on CPI [5][21] - The investment logic for the pig industry is improving, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others. The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, driven by domestic brands [6][33] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of pigs in China as of June 13, 2025, is 14.02 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.73 yuan/kg. The report notes that the price has stabilized after a period of accelerated slaughtering [4][13] - The report discusses the impact of weather conditions, such as the "Bailu" typhoon and the rainy season in southern China, which have affected pig transportation and provided short-term support for prices [4][13] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the broader market by 1.87 percentage points during the week of June 9-13, 2025, with the agricultural index rising by 1.62% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% [6][36] - The pet food sector led the gains, with individual stocks such as Yuanfei Pet (+12.41%), Xiaoming Co. (+7.33%), and Shennong Group (+6.64%) showing significant increases [6][36] Price Tracking - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of pigs is 14.02 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.28% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 32.89 yuan/kg, down 4.69% week-on-week [49][60] - The report also notes that corn and soybean meal prices have increased, with corn futures settling at 2370.00 yuan/ton, up 1.46% week-on-week, and soybean meal futures at 3048.00 yuan/ton, up 1.91% [60][64]