国泰君安期货研究周报：绿色金融与新能源-20250615

Report Information - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [1][4][28][59][91][95] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: When the mine - end logic is marginally dull, the supply elasticity of the smelting end may limit the upside space, and the nickel price may still face the pressure of "de - valuation - de - production" [4] - Stainless Steel: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the pressure on profits from the far - end surplus may ease slightly if production cuts occur as scheduled from June to July [5] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The industry remains in an oversupply pattern, and the disk still has downward drivers. It is recommended to short on rallies [33] - Polysilicon: It is also advisable to short on rallies. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation persists, and the spot price still has further downward drivers [34] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate Lithium: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to use the reverse spread strategy [59][61] National Carbon Market - National Carbon Market: The trading volume is expected to climb in mid - to late June. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [92][93] Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The short - term support logic at the mine end remains, but the market's concern about the mine end has decreased. The supply elasticity at the smelting end is abundant, and the nickel price may face pressure [4] - Inventory Changes: Global visible inventory accumulation is lower than expected, but the overall inventory is high, and there are still many potential supply release expectations in the medium term [4] - Market News: Multiple events such as potential changes in Philippine mining policies and the resumption of production in some Indonesian factories have affected the market [9] Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is restricted by short - term off - season demand and overseas tariffs [5] - Inventory Changes: Stainless steel social inventory has increased week - on - week [7] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Trends: The disk rebounded slightly, and the spot price remained stable [29] - Supply and Demand: The industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in Yunnan, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia continued to resume production, while downstream demand remained on - demand procurement [30][31] Polysilicon - Price Trends: The disk fluctuated downward, and the upstream quotation decreased [29] - Supply and Demand: The upstream inventory continued to accumulate. The production of silicon materials in June and July may continue to increase, but the overall procurement of industrial silicon did not increase significantly [30][31] Carbonate Lithium - Price Trends: The main contract first rose and then fell. The 2507 contract closed at 59940 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2509 contract closed at 59800 yuan/ton, down 1120 yuan/ton week - on - week [59] - Supply and Demand: The ore price stabilized, and production increased. The terminal market of new energy vehicles and energy storage performed well, but downstream procurement was still cautious [60] - Inventory: The total inventory increased, and the inventory of traders increased rapidly. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [60] National Carbon Market - Price Trends: The comprehensive price of the national carbon market rebounded significantly, and the trading activity of CCER increased [91] - Trading Volume: The weekly total trading volume of the national carbon market increased by 42% week - on - week, and the weekly total trading volume of the national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market increased by more than 15 times week - on - week [91] - Core Views: The trading volume is expected to climb in mid - to late June, and it is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the fourth quarter [92][93]