矿石扰动平息，氧化铝供给转为过剩

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Ore disturbances have subsided, and the supply of alumina has turned into surplus. It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory approach in the short - term and a short - selling approach at high levels in the long - term for alumina [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices were temporarily stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in Shanxi had limited impact on production. In Henan, environmental supervision restricted ore production. The rainy season in southern regions poses challenges. Imported Guinea high - grade bauxite (45/3) was stable at 75 dollars/dry ton. SMB plans to increase exports after the AXIS mine closure. Newly arrived ore was 391.3 million tons, with 332.5 million tons from Guinea and 58.8 million tons from Australia. The shipping fee from Guinea to China rose to 26 dollars/ton [11] - Alumina: Spot prices fell last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3180 - 3280 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 3192.4 yuan/ton, down 109.8 yuan/ton. Imported alumina port quotes were flat. Large enterprises focused on long - term contracts. Northern market spot sales were 1.25 million tons, up 0.85 million tons, mainly in Henan at 3217 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton. Overseas supply increased, pressuring prices. The domestic full cost was 2929 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 381 yuan/ton. Domestic capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 11292 million tons, operating capacity of 9265 million tons (up 200 million tons), and an 82% utilization rate [12] - Demand: Domestic and overseas demand for electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged. Domestic operating capacity was 4392.3 million tons, and overseas was 2948.8 million tons, both week - on - week flat [12] - Inventory: As of June 5th, national alumina inventory was 312.9 million tons, down 0.4 million tons. Long - term contract execution improved, and inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants increased steadily, while port and alumina enterprise inventory decreased [13] - Warehouse Receipts: SHFE alumina registered warehouse receipts were 80443 tons, down 10215 tons. With supply turning into surplus, alumina is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be short - sold at high levels in the long - term [14] 3.2 Weekly Key Event Summaries in the Industry Chain - Australia sold 3 million tons of alumina on June 13th at 366 dollars/ton FOB for an August shipment [15] - A Guangxi alumina plant reduced production due to higher costs of imported ores. It cut one production line, reducing operating capacity from 250 million tons to 200 million tons [15] - On June 13th, 0.5 million tons of spot alumina were sold in Henan Sanmenxia at 3180 yuan/ton [15] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - Include data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [16][18][20] 3.3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Include data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, SHFE electrolytic aluminum - alumina futures ratio, and domestic alumina weekly supply - demand balance [30][37][38] 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions, and the ratio of SHFE alumina positions to warehouse receipts [40][43][45]