黑色金属周报合集-20250615

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to continue its range - bound oscillation in the short term due to the loosening fundamentals and mixed macro - level factors [8]. - Steel prices will experience wide - range fluctuations due to macro - sentiment disturbances, with steel demand peaking and negative feedback pressure intensifying [68]. - The alloy market will show an oscillating trend due to the game between macro - drivers and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and steel production rhythms [128][129]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore - Supply: Australian shipments are rising, with BHP and Fortescue having strong end - of - fiscal - year impulse, strengthening the expectation of loose supply. Non - mainstream mines in Peru have not fully recovered, and domestic mines in Southwest and North China have reduced production due to inspections [7][8][20][32]. - Demand: Although the decline of hot metal is slow, port throughput has dropped rapidly, and the production of five major steel products has decreased steeply, indicating a possible change in the strong - reality situation. The substitution effect of scrap steel is relatively neutral [8][38][39]. - Inventory: The inflection point of inventory accumulation has emerged [43][45]. - Price and Spread: Futures prices are in narrow - range oscillation, spot prices are weak, the medium - low grade spread is narrowing, the 9 - 1 spread has narrowed, and the basis has converged [10][15][53][57][60]. 3.2 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Supply and Demand: Supply and demand of various steel products are generally declining. For rebar, new - home sales are low, and demand is seasonally weak. For hot - rolled coil, demand is weakening both domestically and in exports [67][79][83][100][103][104]. - Inventory: For rebar, the de - stocking of steel mills has slowed down. For hot - rolled coil, inventory has slightly accumulated [85][107]. - Profit: The spot and futures profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have different trends, and there is still room for the compression of the futures profit [93][113]. - Spread: There are opportunities for reverse spreads in the off - season for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [75][95]. 3.3 Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Supply: Silicon iron supply has slightly decreased, while manganese silicon supply has continued to rebound, with obvious production increases in Ningxia [130][140]. - Demand: Demand is gradually peaking. Steel mill inventory days are decreasing, and the demand for silicon iron in steelmaking is shrinking, but non - steel demand shows different trends [130][153]. - Inventory: The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [130]. - Price and Profit: Futures prices show different trends, with silicon iron rebounding slightly and manganese silicon oscillating. Spot prices are weak, and both spot and futures profits are under pressure [134][135].