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转债市场周报:转债呈现较强韧性,关注低价个券信用挖掘-20250615
Guoxin Securities·2025-06-15 13:01

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of continued tariff conditions and global geopolitical tensions, the equity market may continue to experience index fluctuations, waiting for the progress of the technology industry to drive a new round of upward technology market. The convertible bond market showed strong resilience last week, with a slight increase in valuation. After the successive announcements of early redemptions of Hangyin and Nanyin convertible bonds, the problem of bottom - position allocation in the convertible bond market has become more urgent. Attention can be paid to underlying stocks with better fundamentals among the convertible bonds with positive YTM. If large - balance convertible bonds have their ratings downgraded, it may be a good opportunity to increase positions in convertible bonds. When selecting bonds, one can take advantage of the inconsistent driving factors of the dividend and technology sectors to reduce portfolio volatility and look for targets driven by performance and/or valuation, starting from three aspects: performance - driven, event - catalyzed, and dividend and defensive [3][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus from June 9th to June 13th Stock Market - The equity market showed an overall fluctuating pattern last week. Against the backdrop of intensified global geopolitical conflicts, the prices of gold and crude oil rose significantly, and the introduction of export control measures related to rare earth permanent magnets drove the non - ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemical sectors to perform well. Affected by the suspension of trade - in subsidy activities in some regions, consumer sectors such as food and beverage and household appliances adjusted significantly. Most Shenwan primary industries closed down last week, with non - ferrous metals (+3.79%), petroleum and petrochemical (+3.50%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.62%), media (+1.55%), and pharmaceutical and biological (+1.40%) leading the gains; food and beverage (-4.37%), household appliances (-3.26%), building materials (-2.77%), and computer (-2.52%) performing poorly [1][9][10]. Bond Market - The bond market strengthened overall last week. The inflation in May remained low, the year - on - year export declined to 4.8%, the capital cost continued to decline, the overnight capital interest rate reached a new low this year, and the intensified geopolitical conflicts and the decline in market risk appetite all benefited the bond market. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.64% on Friday, down 1.07bp from the previous week [1][10]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed down last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.02% for the whole week, the median price decreased by 0.63%, the arithmetic average parity calculated decreased by 0.95% for the whole week, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.61% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, Jinling (football concept), Jinji (reactive dyes), Haibo (steel structure engineering), Liande (display module equipment), and Zhite (aluminum formwork for construction) convertible bonds led the gains; Zhengyu (automobile shock absorbers and components & early redemption announced), Huati (intelligent transportation system), Haomei (aluminum profiles), and Tianyang (financial IT) convertible bonds led the losses. Most industries in the convertible bond market closed down last week, with communication (-4.42%), media (-3.67%), automobile (-1.63%), and computer (-1.58%) experiencing relatively large declines, while social services (+8.88%), non - bank finance (+1.37%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.79%), and banks (+0.78%) performing well. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 346.489 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 69.298 billion yuan, showing an increase compared with the previous week [2][10][13][14][18]. Views and Strategies from June 16th to June 20th - The equity market may continue to fluctuate, waiting for the technology industry to drive a new round of upward market. The convertible bond market showed strong resilience last week, with a slight increase in valuation. After the early redemptions of Hangyin and Nanyin convertible bonds, attention can be paid to underlying stocks with better fundamentals among the convertible bonds with positive YTM. If large - balance convertible bonds have their ratings downgraded, it may be a good opportunity to increase positions. When selecting bonds, one can take advantage of the inconsistent driving factors of the dividend and technology sectors to reduce portfolio volatility and look for targets from three aspects: performance - driven, event - catalyzed, and dividend and defensive [3][19][20]. Valuation Overview - As of June 13th, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 39.18%, 27.52%, 18.77%, 13.77%, 8.02%, and 4.3% respectively, at the 79%/57%, 72%/46%, 65%/36%, 69%/46%, 58%/30%, and 64%/28% percentile values since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was 0.43%, at the 12%/3% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 30.27%, at the 51%/27% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 17.65%, at the 12%/18% percentile values since 2010/2021 [21]. Primary Market Tracking Newly Announced Issuances Last Week (June 9th - June 13th) - Luwei Convertible Bond (118056.SH): The underlying stock is Luwei Optoelectronics (688401.SH), belonging to the electronics industry. The convertible bond issuance scale is 615 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for semiconductor and high - precision flat - panel display mask expansion projects, acquisition of minority shareholders' equity in Chengdu Luwei, and supplementing working capital and repaying bank loans. - Dianhua Convertible Bond (127109.SZ): The underlying stock is Xiangtan Dianhua (002125.SZ), belonging to the power equipment industry. The convertible bond issuance scale is 487 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA. The funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for a project to produce 30,000 tons of spinel - type lithium manganate battery materials and supplementing working capital. - Anke Convertible Bond (123257.SZ): The underlying stock is Anke Innovation (300866.SZ), belonging to the electronics industry. The convertible bond issuance scale is 1.105 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA+. The funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for R & D and industrialization projects of portable and household energy storage products, new - generation intelligent hardware products, warehousing intelligent upgrading, full - link digital operation center, and supplementing working capital [30][31][32]. Upcoming Listings - Hengshuai Convertible Bond (123256.SZ) is expected to be listed on June 17th. The underlying stock is Hengshuai Co., Ltd. (300969.SZ), belonging to the automobile industry. The convertible bond issuance scale is 328 million yuan, with a credit rating of A+. The funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for a project to build a new automobile parts production base in Thailand, an expansion project of an annual production of 19.54 million automobile micro - motors and cleaning and cooling system components and R & D center expansion, and R & D center expansion [33][34]. Issuance Progress - Last week, the exchange approved the registration of 1 company (Libote), and the general meetings of shareholders passed the proposals of 2 companies (Xianghe Industry and Lianrui New Materials). As of now, there are 82 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 129.19 billion yuan, including 8 that have been approved for registration with a total scale of 14.43 billion yuan and 4 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 2.93 billion yuan [35].