样本城市周度高频数据全追踪：新房和二手房网签面积均同比降幅收窄-20250615

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas in sample cities, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, which may help stimulate demand in the housing market [5]. - The analysis indicates that the new housing market may experience marginal improvements sooner than the second-hand housing market due to supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction areas has narrowed to -10% as of June 12, with a month-on-month comparison showing a relatively high level compared to the past five years [4][9]. - The report notes that the new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has turned negative, while second-tier cities show a significant decline of -10% [4]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction areas has also narrowed to -4%, with a notable increase in transaction activity in first-tier cities [4][14]. - The report indicates that the second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction areas in some sample cities turning positive [14]. Land Acquisition - The report states that from January to May 2025, the cumulative land transaction area has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [21][26]. - The land acquisition data indicates a trend of increasing average prices despite a decrease in transaction volumes, suggesting a tightening supply [21][29]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report highlights an increase in the unsold inventory and the time required to sell properties, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [31][34]. - The analysis suggests that the market is entering a phase of observation, with high-quality residential supply and narrowing differences between rental yields and mortgage rates being key variables to monitor [5][31]. Forward-Looking Indicators - The report discusses various forward-looking indicators, including a projected increase in liquidity and a potential rise in confidence in housing transactions across multiple cities [5][49]. - The report also notes that the confidence index for new and second-hand housing transactions has shown a marginal decline, indicating cautious sentiment among buyers [51].