CHOW TAI FOOK(HK:01929) Guoxin Securities·2025-06-15 13:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 was HKD 89.556 billion, a decrease of 17.75% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.916 billion, down 8.98% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was primarily due to high gold prices suppressing end demand and losses from gold lending contracts. However, after excluding the impact of fair value changes in gold lending, the operating profit was HKD 14.746 billion, reflecting a strong operational resilience with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][9]. - The retail value decline narrowed to 1.7% year-on-year in April-May, compared to a 11.6% decline in January-March. Notably, same-store sales of gold jewelry and products in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) achieved a positive growth of 0.9% [1][9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in high-margin priced products, with revenue from priced gold jewelry products growing by 105.5% year-on-year to HKD 12.782 billion, accounting for 14.6% of total retail sales, an increase of 8.8 percentage points [2][11]. - The average monthly sales per store exceeded HKD 10 million, up from HKD 9 million the previous year, despite a net closure of 905 stores, bringing the total to 6,644 stores [2][11]. Financial Summary - The company's gross margin for fiscal year 2025 was 29.5%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin priced products and rising gold prices. The sales expense ratio was 9.7%, up 0.95 percentage points, influenced by declining revenue and increased marketing expenses [2][15]. - The company forecasts net profits for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 to be HKD 7.062 billion and HKD 8.104 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for fiscal year 2028 at HKD 9.049 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.3, 16, and 14.3 times [3][19].