中东军事冲突升级，黄金价格走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market focus has shifted to the military conflict in the Middle East. Market risk appetite has declined, and volatility has increased. Gold may maintain a relatively strong trend, but the long - short game is also intensifying [4] - Gold prices first declined and then rose, breaking through the $3400 mark. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. Rising oil prices have added inflationary pressure in the US, increasing the stagflation pressure on the US fundamentals. The employment market continues to weaken, but the inflation expectations of the resident sector have declined from a high level [2] - The Fed's June interest - rate meeting is approaching, and it is expected to keep rates unchanged. The short - term fundamental data gives the Fed a time window for further observation. The market's expectation of an interest - rate cut has been postponed to September. Monetary policy lacks short - term incremental positive factors and fails to provide more upward momentum for gold [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) decreased by 4.9%, the internal - external futures price difference decreased by 120.2%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 1.8%, and the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.86% [11] - The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.67%, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 0.5% [11] - The US Treasury yield decreased by 2.2%, the US dollar index decreased by 1.07%, the SOFR decreased by 0.2%, and the US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate decreased by 1.21% [11] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.4%, the VIX volatility index increased by 24.2%, the gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 2.2%, and the US 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 3.6% [11] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.28%, oil prices rose 10.3%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.29% [17] - The US dollar index fell 1.01% to 98.2, the US Treasury yield was 4.4%, the S&P 500 fell 0.39%, and the VIX index rose to 20.8 [18] - The real interest rate fell to 2.11%, and the gold price rose 3.7%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index declined [20] 3.2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 falling 0.39%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.25% [22] - US and German bonds declined, with the US - German yield spread at 1.86%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.55%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.41% [25] - The euro rose 1.32%, the pound rose 0.31%, the yen rose 0.54%, and the Swiss franc rose 1.33%. The US dollar index fell 1.01% to 98.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated [27][30] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly decreased to 129,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume rose to 940 tons [33] - The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose, silver rose slightly, and the gold - silver ratio rose to 94.6 [35] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May social retail sales and industrial added value; US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index [36] - Tuesday: Bank of Japan's June interest - rate meeting; US May retail sales and June NAHB Housing Market Index [36] - Wednesday: UK May CPI; US May new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims for the week [36] - Thursday: Fed, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England's June interest - rate meetings; US stock market closed for Juneteenth [36] - Friday: China's June LPR [36]