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农林牧渔周观点:猪价震荡,降重出栏开始兑现,关注宠物食品5月线上销售数据-20250615
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-15 13:42

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [5][6][59]. Core Insights - The report highlights a reassessment of pig prices, with expectations for a potential upward adjustment in the second half of the year due to strong current prices and declining breeding costs. This creates opportunities for low-cost pig farming companies to realize profits [5][6]. - The pet food sector remains robust, with significant online sales growth, particularly during the "618" shopping festival, suggesting a positive outlook for leading brands [5][6]. - The chicken farming sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with a noted decline in chick prices during the off-season, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability for the industry [5][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of June 15, the average selling price of external three yuan pigs was 14.12 yuan/kg, up 1.5% week-on-week. However, profits for large-scale farms decreased to 68.27 yuan per head, down 53.15 yuan from the previous week [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading pig farming companies for performance realization, particularly in light of the current strong pig prices and the slow recovery of production capacity [5][6]. Pet Food - In May 2025, online sales of pet food reached 3.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 35%. Cumulatively, sales from January to May totaled 12.26 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year [5][6]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., which have shown significant growth in sales [5][6]. Chicken Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 2.43 yuan per chick, down 7.6% week-on-week. The price of broiler chickens remained stable at 3.58 yuan per jin, with chicken meat prices showing a downward trend [5][6]. - The report suggests that the supply pressure is easing, but the industry is still expected to operate around the breakeven point, highlighting the need to focus on leading companies for potential excess profits [5][6]. Animal Health - The report notes a recovery in the sales of veterinary vaccines, with a 23.02% year-on-year increase in the number of vaccine batches approved in Q1 2025. This recovery is driven by increased breeding stock and profitability in farming operations [5][6]. - Companies like Huirun Biological and KQ Biological are highlighted for their potential growth in the animal health sector, particularly with new vaccine varieties [5][6].