光大证券农林牧渔行业周报：收储提振情绪，猪价跌势趋缓-20250615

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent decline in pig prices has led to increased resistance from the breeding sector, with large producers gradually easing their selling pace. However, high temperatures have weakened terminal demand, resulting in low slaughter volumes and insufficient consumer support [1][22]. - The corn and soybean meal prices have risen, while wheat prices have decreased. The corn market is buoyed by a decrease in circulation due to the wheat harvest, and soybean supply remains ample due to favorable weather conditions in major production areas [2][44]. - The natural rubber price has increased, supported by tightening supply due to weather impacts on production and recovering demand from tire manufacturers [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with the sector index rising by 1.62% compared to a 0.25% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance, with livestock farming and animal health sectors increasing by 3.92% and 1.13%, respectively, while planting and feed sectors experienced declines [13][18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 14.02 yuan/kg, down 0.21% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets fell by 4.69% to 32.89 yuan/kg [21][22]. - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased to 128.82 kg, and the national frozen meat inventory rate increased to 13.89% [22]. - White feather broiler prices dropped to 7.27 yuan/kg, and chick prices fell to 2.74 yuan each, reflecting a weak market for poultry [31][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For the pig farming sector, the report suggests that the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and with ongoing policy support for inventory reduction, a long-term profit uptrend is expected post-inventory clearance. Recommended stocks include Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [3][71]. - The report also highlights opportunities in the planting chain due to the upward trend in grain prices, recommending stocks like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][71]. - In the pet food sector, the report notes ongoing growth and price increase logic, recommending companies such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [3][71].