固收周度点评：资金再起波澜？-20250615

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a low - volatility shock state, waiting for further signals. The short - end may show a shock - strong pattern, but a trend - like decline may require a rate cut. The upside space for the long - end is relatively limited [5][34]. - The pressure on the liability side of large banks is relatively controllable, but the pressure on certificate of deposit (CD) renewal at the end of the month and quarter needs to be observed. In the long run, the "deposit transfer" to non - banks may ease the upward pressure on CD prices [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance - From June 9 - 13, the bond market was in a narrow - range shock. Short - end and long - end performed well, while the decline of 5Y bonds was limited. By June 13, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bonds changed by - 1, - 0.1, - 1.1, - 2.7BP respectively compared to June 6 [1][7][8]. - Most yields of major - term CDs declined. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs changed by + 0.3, - 2.0, - 1.0, - 0.8, - 0.8BP respectively [8]. 3.2 Funding Situation - This week, the funding was first tight and then loose. DR001 fell below 1.4%. The net financing of large state - owned banks reached a high of 4.27 trillion yuan. Although the CD maturity scale was large, CD yields remained stable [2][11][12]. - The central bank's open - market operations showed a net withdrawal of 727 billion yuan this week. The average weekly values of DR001, R001, DR007, and R007 declined compared to the previous week. The phenomenon of funding stratification was prominent but still at a low level [12]. 3.3 May Social Financing - In May, the overall social financing and credit were in line with expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was flat, while that of loans continued to decline slightly, possibly due to government bonds replacing corporate loans [19]. - Attention should be paid to the weak long - term corporate loans, which may be related to short - term household loans and M2. M1 increased by 0.8pct year - on - year, and long - term household loans improved marginally, indicating better business expectations and spending willingness [20][21]. 3.4 Liability - Side Pressure - The pressure on the liability side of large banks is relatively controllable. The impact of previous deposit rate cuts since 2022 has been mild, and the central bank's support remains. This week, large banks' net lending increased, and CD net financing was negative [25][26][28]. - Next week, the funding will face multiple disturbances, including tax deadlines, MLF maturities, and large CD maturities. However, the pressure on the liability side is generally controllable [32]. 3.5 Next Week's Focus - On June 16, data such as May fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, industrial added value, and unemployment rate will be released. Other important data from various countries will also be released from June 17 - 20 [35][36].