宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告：经济周周看：本周经济景总体平稳-20250615

Economic Overview - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of June 14 is 5.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous week's revised value of 5.6%, indicating relative economic stability[1] - The historical tracking of the GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index shows a good fit with monthly GDP trends, particularly in predicting turning points for 2024[1] Production Indicators - High-frequency indicators for both the service and industrial sectors are generally stable compared to the previous week[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index remains unchanged at 8.0%, while the service sector index slightly decreased to 3.8%[10] Demand Indicators - Consumer demand shows signs of recovery, with the consumption high-frequency index rising significantly to 5.5% from 4.8%[10] - Infrastructure investment appears weak, with rebar apparent demand dropping to 220.3 thousand tons, down from 228.7 thousand tons[10] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased to 172.2 million square meters, a 24% week-on-week rise[54] Export Performance - Container throughput remains high, with 639.1 thousand standard containers reported, indicating stable export levels despite a slight decrease from the previous week[63] Price Trends - The agricultural wholesale price index decreased by 0.45% week-on-week, with pork prices dropping by 1.45%[71] - The overall price pressure continues, with production material prices also showing a slight decline of 0.2%[71] Risk Factors - Economic structural transformation may lead to a decline in the fitting degree of traditional economic indicators[2] - Geopolitical tensions may exceed expectations, posing additional risks to economic stability[2]