Changjiang Securities·2025-06-15 14:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential impact of rising oil prices on coal prices and the coal sector, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts can lead to synchronized price increases for oil and coal, but this requires substantial and sustained effects on oil supply and demand [2][7] - The current coal prices are expected to remain stable, influenced by seasonal factors such as the rainy season affecting power plant inventory replenishment and a reduction in production from some small private coal mines [6][18] - Historical analysis indicates that past geopolitical conflicts have not consistently led to increases in coal prices, emphasizing the need for sustained oil supply disruptions for a similar effect on coal [8][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.40%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, ranking 16th out of 32 industries [18] - As of June 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao power coal was 609 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [6][18] Supply and Demand Situation - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 4.756 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% week-on-week and 6.7% year-on-year [34] - The total coal inventory in power plants was 119 million tons, with an available days supply of 24.9 days, reflecting a slight increase [34] Price Situation - The report notes that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton from the previous week [6][18] - The report highlights that the international coal prices have shown fluctuations, with Australian 5500 kcal FOB prices at 68.25 USD/ton, down 0.8 USD/ton week-on-week [18][36] Company Performance - The report identifies top-performing coal companies for the week, including Anyuan Coal Industry (up 11.33%) and Yunnan Coal Energy (up 9.82%) [28][31] - Conversely, companies like Dayou Energy and Pingmei Shenma Coal fell by 4.15% and 3.67%, respectively [28][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends marginal allocation to leading companies with stable profits such as China Coal Energy and Shenhua Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [9]