宏观和大类资产配置周报：中期内影响外需的三重因素-20250615

Macro Economic Overview - The report highlights three major factors affecting external demand: the potential 50% tariff on various steel household appliances by the US, geopolitical complexities, and the World Bank's downward revision of global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3% for 2025 [6][19][20] - The report suggests that the uncertainty in external demand may lead to a greater reliance on domestic demand, with potential for enhanced macro policies to stimulate internal consumption [6][19] Asset Performance Review - The report notes a decline in risk asset prices, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.25% and futures showing a slight increase of 0.04% [2][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.64%, while the active ten-year government bond futures rose by 0.09% [2][12] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight position in stocks, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while suggesting a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4][13] - Commodities are recommended for standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policies [4][13] Economic Data Insights - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% [5][19] - The report indicates that the total value of China's goods trade in the first five months reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with exports growing by 7.2% [20][21] Market Sentiment and Trends - The report observes a high risk aversion preference in the market, with A-shares showing a downward trend, particularly in small-cap stocks [12][36] - The report notes that the automotive market continues to grow, with production and sales of vehicles increasing by 11.6% and 11.2% year-on-year, respectively [39]