经济分析与资产展望：以伊冲突再燃，避险防御为上

Market Performance - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a sharp increase in oil and gold prices, with Brent crude oil rising over 13% this week, recovering all losses for the year[1] - The US stock market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq falling by 0.39%, 1.32%, and 0.63% respectively due to geopolitical concerns overshadowing positive US-China trade talks[1][13] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 10 basis points (bp) to 4.41%, reflecting a strong bond market amid weakening economic data[1][11] Economic Indicators - In May, China's exports totaled $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while imports fell by 3.4% to $212.88 billion[19][21] - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3%[22] - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, aiming to maintain liquidity in the market[23] Geopolitical Developments - The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated, with Iran launching a large-scale missile attack on Israel, marking a significant shift from proxy warfare to direct confrontation[25] - The US has seen its CPI data fall below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, contributing to a weaker dollar, with the dollar index dropping below 98, a three-year low[11][19] Investment Outlook - The current geopolitical tensions are expected to increase risk aversion in the market, putting pressure on equity investments[4] - Gold prices are anticipated to rise further due to heightened safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold surpassing $3,400 per ounce[1][14]