固定收益点评：资金还能更宽松吗？

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The capital market has no basis for tightening as the real - estate market and credit demand face downward pressure, and external exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. However, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is limitedly loose, so the probability of a significant decline in capital interest rates is low. DR007 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.5 - 1.6%. The CD maturity peak is not over, and CD interest rates may remain in a sideways oscillation state, with limited downward momentum in the bond market. Further long - position opportunities may require greater liquidity support from the central bank, a significant decline in CD interest rates, and an increase in interest - rate cut expectations [5][19][23] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Can the funds become even looser? - From the fundamental perspective, the real - estate market and credit demand have downward pressure. As of June 14, the year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in June was 8.0%, and the year - on - year growth of first - tier cities' transaction area also decreased. As of June 8, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.48% month - on - month. In May, the year - on - year growth of RMB loan balances was 7.1%, and the credit growth rate was still in a downward range. The growth of social financing was mainly supported by government bond issuance and direct financing, with weak financing demand from the real economy [7][12] - External exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. After the Sino - US Geneva talks on May 12, bilateral tariff levels were significantly reduced, and the RMB showed an appreciation trend, so the central bank does not need to tighten funds to stabilize the exchange rate [15] - The central bank's attitude towards the capital market is limitedly loose. The central bank conducted two outright reverse repurchases in June, with a total investment of 1.4 trillion yuan, but the net investment was only 200 billion yuan. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter pressure, the upward range of capital interest rates is expected to be limited, and DR007 may fluctuate in the 1.5 - 1.6% range [17][18] 2. What is the impact on the bond market? - Since late May, although capital interest rates have significantly declined, CD interest rates have been in a sideways oscillation state, restricting the downward space of bond interest rates. In the next two weeks, CD repayment pressure is high, but the net lending scale of large banks has been increasing, so CD interest rates are expected to remain in an oscillating state, and the downward momentum of the bond market is limited [19]