摩根大通：资金流向与流动性-2 月至 3 月期间，美国股票交易中散户的占比有所下降

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The decline in the share of retail investors in US equity trading during February and March indicates that institutional investors were primarily responsible for the equity market correction and increased trading volumes during that period [7][34] - Retail trading activity has shown mean reversion rather than a consistent upward trend over the past five years, with a historical high of 31% in December 2020 yet to be surpassed [7][34] - The retail buying impulse subsided in May and June, suggesting that corporate share buybacks and macro hedge funds have been the main drivers of the equity market in recent months [7][34] - Euro area banks are exhibiting shorter duration positions compared to US banks, which may support Euro duration against US duration [7][34] Summary by Sections Flows & Liquidity - The report highlights a significant decline in retail investor participation in US equity trading during February and March, following a strong retail presence in the preceding months [7][34] - Institutional investors, particularly macro hedge funds and CTAs, have been instrumental in supporting the equity market, with momentum-driven hedge funds still having room to increase their long positions before reaching overbought levels [7][34] - The anticipation of a favorable US regulatory environment is leading to an increase in crypto IPOs and venture capital funding, with several crypto companies preparing for IPOs this year [7][34] Cross Asset Positioning Monitor - The current positioning across various asset classes shows equities at a 0.49 percentile, government bonds at 0.70, and commodities excluding gold at 0.53, indicating varied levels of investor sentiment [4] - Momentum-driven hedge funds such as CTAs are currently positioned significantly long in equities, suggesting potential for further market support [7][34] Fund Flows - Recent data indicates that overall fund flows, including mutual funds and ETFs, have shown a mixed trend, with US equities experiencing outflows while non-US equities have seen inflows [9][34] - The report notes that corporate share buybacks have remained strong, with monthly buyback activity close to $200 billion, contributing to market stability [19][34]