高盛：美联储观察-6 月版

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently positioned to wait for more clarity before making adjustments to monetary policy, with a high bar for cutting rates due to uncertainty and above-target inflation [3][6]. - There are mixed views among FOMC participants regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing that tariff-induced inflation will not be persistent, while others express concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored [3][7]. - The economic implications of tariffs are significant, with potential for both upward pressure on prices and negative effects on employment, particularly in sectors reliant on imported materials [7][8]. Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to push up prices, but the extent of the increase and its impact on growth and employment remains uncertain [7]. - Three channels through which tariffs could have a persistent influence on inflation include increased short-run inflation expectations, opportunistic pricing by firms, and lower productivity leading to upward price pressure [7]. - The FOMC acknowledges that tariffs could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, with potential long-term effects depending on how trade policy evolves [7][8]. Balance of Risks - Current data suggests that the Fed is close to meeting its inflation mandate, with inflation at 2.1 percent in April [8]. - There are greater upside risks to inflation and potential downside risks to employment and output growth in the future [8]. - The balance of risks is closely tied to the evolution of trade policy, with uncertainty remaining about the ultimate levels of tariffs and their economic impact [8]. Inflation and Inflation Expectations - Recent inflation data has been subdued, but expectations are that tariffs will soon reflect in prices [11]. - Estimates indicate that tariffs have raised overall core PCE prices by 0.2% through April, suggesting a quick pass-through of tariffs into prices [11]. - While short-term inflation expectations have risen sharply, longer-term expectations remain stable [11]. Growth and Labor Market Outlook - The labor market is currently near maximum employment, but trade and policy changes could raise the unemployment rate [12]. - There are indications that economic activity may be starting to slow, with expectations of slower growth compared to the previous year [12][14]. - Businesses are preparing for potential workforce reductions if uncertainty persists, indicating a cautious outlook on economic activity [12][14].