高盛：铜成本曲线分析；前 20 大铜企综合边际成本约每磅 4.3 美元

Investment Rating - The report rates the following companies as "Buy": BHP.AX, RIO, GLEN, LUN, FM, CMOC, MMG, Zijin, S32, and Vale [4][25][47] Core Insights - The all-in marginal cost for the top 20 copper producers is estimated at approximately US$4.3/lb for 2024, indicating a broad support for a long-run copper price of around US$4.6/lb [1][8] - The top 20 copper producers are projected to spend over US$30 billion in capital expenditures (capex) in 2024, with Codelco and Freeport leading with approximately US$4.5 billion each [2][25] - Copper demand is expected to rise by 4 million tonnes by 2030, necessitating higher prices to support growth in mine and scrap supply to prevent market deficits [3] Summary by Sections Cost Analysis - The report presents a global copper cash cost curve, with the marginal cash cost of production estimated at approximately US$3.1/lb, influenced by various factors including inflation and ore grade decline [16][24] - The five companies with the highest all-in costs for 2024 are KGHM, Capstone, Codelco, Ivanhoe, and Teck, with Codelco's Chuquicamata mine being the most costly at around US$5.9/lb [2][12] Production and Demand Forecast - Refined copper production is projected to increase from 26,015 thousand tonnes in 2023 to 27,061 thousand tonnes in 2024, while consumption is expected to rise from 25,954 thousand tonnes in 2023 to 26,712 thousand tonnes in 2024 [31] - The report indicates a potential market balance shift, with a forecasted surplus of 349 thousand tonnes in 2024, followed by a deficit of 120 thousand tonnes in 2026 [31] Company-Specific Insights - Codelco aims to recover production volumes to 1.7 million tonnes per annum over the next 4-5 years, with significant investments in modernization and expansion [27] - Freeport's Grasberg operations in Indonesia are highlighted for their industry-leading cash cost of negative ~US$0.3/lb, despite high capex spending [27] - BHP's Escondida mine is projected to see a decline in production due to grade decline, but growth is expected to accelerate post-2030 [28]