高盛：全球外汇-趋势延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the USD, indicating a potential for further depreciation [1] Core Insights - The report identifies three main factors contributing to the bearish outlook on the USD: US policymaking uncertainty, stronger-than-expected foreign policy responses, and the impact of tariffs on US businesses and consumers [1] - The CNY is expected to strengthen against the USD due to the competitiveness of China's export sector and the undervaluation of the currency [7] - The CHF is viewed as a safe haven, likely to appreciate during geopolitical turmoil, despite potential domestic monetary policy easing [8] - The ILS faces a risk premium due to geopolitical tensions, impacting its performance against the USD [9] - The EUR/USD forecast has been revised higher, with expectations for the cross to rise to 1.25 over the next 12 months, driven by changes in global investor allocations [15] - The GBP faces structural challenges, with expectations for a gradual upward drift in EUR/GBP due to narrowing UK-EU rate differentials [15] - The BRL is favored among emerging market currencies, supported by high real rates and macro stability [16] - The CLP is seen as an attractive funding currency for relative value trades, despite being undervalued [19] Summary by Sections USD - The report outlines a bearish outlook for the USD, driven by US policymaking uncertainty and tariff impacts on domestic profits and incomes [1] - Recent inflation data showed a smaller impact from tariffs than expected, suggesting a need for ongoing monitoring [1] CNY - The CNY is expected to appreciate against the USD, supported by positive trade developments and the currency's undervaluation [7] CHF - The CHF is anticipated to remain strong amid geopolitical risks, with a preference for it over JPY as a safe haven [8] ILS - The ILS is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, with its performance influenced by the duration and scope of conflicts in the region [9] EUR - The EUR/USD forecast has been raised, with expectations for the cross to reach 1.25 in the next 12 months, reflecting a shift in capital flows back into the Euro area [15] GBP - The GBP faces challenges from weaker labor market data and disappointing GDP figures, with expectations for a gradual upward drift in EUR/GBP [15] BRL - The BRL is highlighted as a strong performer among emerging market currencies, benefiting from high real rates and macroeconomic stability [16] CLP - The CLP is viewed as an attractive funding currency for trades, despite its undervaluation against the USD [19] Section 899 - The report discusses the implications of pending Section 899 legislation, emphasizing its role in international tax negotiations rather than revenue generation [21]