格林大华期货早盘提示-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite the significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the inflationary impact caused by rising oil prices [1] - The pulse-like increase in crude oil prices is likely to exceed expectations, and the surge in crude oil may drive a collective rise in commodities [1][2] - Safe-haven assets such as gold and silver are performing strongly, and the escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to the freight rates of container shipping on the European route [2] - Global large institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese stock markets, which is favorable for the A-share market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Israel launched a strike on Iran on the early morning of June 13th local time, and the military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities will continue for several days [1] - Iran is seriously considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz [1] - In the worst-case scenario of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, Iranian oil exports may decrease by 2.1 million barrels per day, and oil prices could soar to the range of $120 - $130 [1] - The US will not change the current level of tariffs on Chinese goods even if the trade agreement between the two countries is not finalized [1] - European pension funds have started to increase foreign exchange hedging, leading to a large amount of US dollar selling [1] - Trump's tariffs will cause the US inflation rate to rise by at least 3% year-on-year and cost ordinary households $1000 in income [1] - US President Trump must hand over the command of the California National Guard to Governor Newsom [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated, but the global economic outlook has been stabilized by the China-US phased framework agreement [1] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI final value was 52.0, indicating continued expansion, and consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion [1] - The spot price of 40 - foot containers on the Shanghai - US West Line has exceeded $5000 [1] - China is addressing cut - throat competition, and the European Central Bank's 8th interest rate cut and Germany's 30% expansion of military scale have promoted the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Global Asset Allocation - The attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel will likely cause a more intense and extensive pulse - like increase in crude oil prices [1] - Gold and silver, as safe - haven assets, are performing strongly, and silver is expected to start a trending upward movement [2] - The escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to the freight rates of container shipping on the European route [2] - The surge in crude oil may drive a collective rise in commodities [2] - Global large institutional investors are shifting from US assets to European and Chinese stock markets, which is favorable for the A - share market [2] - The global market has entered an inflation shock mode, and the A - share market has entered a defensive state [2]