Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the intensification of the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the global risk appetite has significantly decreased, while the domestic risk appetite has also cooled overall. However, the short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference to some extent. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is in short - term shock, with cautious short - term long positions; the treasury bond is in short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation; each commodity sector also shows different trends, and corresponding short - term operation suggestions are given [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The attack on Iran by Israel has intensified the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, leading the market to buy safe - haven assets, a short - term rebound of the US dollar, and a significant decline in the global risk preference. - Domestic: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected. The short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference. However, due to the intensified geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the domestic risk appetite has cooled overall, and the weak corporate credit in May indicates insufficient real demand. - Asset performance: The stock index is in short - term shock, with cautious short - term long positions; the treasury bond is in short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation; among the commodity sectors, the black metals are in short - term low - level shock, with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metals are in short - term shock, with cautious observation; the energy and chemical products are in short - term rebound, with cautious long positions; the precious metals are in short - term high - level strong shock, with cautious long positions [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has declined overall, dragged down by sectors such as beauty care, Internet e - commerce, and film and television theaters. The short - term net export has strengthened the economic pull, which helps to boost the domestic risk preference, but the overall domestic risk preference has cooled. The current market trading logic focuses on the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, changes in US trade policies, and the progress of trade negotiations. In the short term, the intensified geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled the market sentiment. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, gold returned to an upward trend, breaking through the $3450 level, while silver was in high - level consolidation with a slight decline, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded. The US inflation data has cooled comprehensively, and the employment data has weakened. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has escalated sharply. Next week, the evolution of the Middle East situation will be the main line. Gold may continue to be strong in the short term, while silver will remain in a consolidation market due to the suppression of industrial demand [5]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets slightly stabilized last Friday, but the actual demand continued to weaken in the off - season. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 14.07 tons week - on - week, and the demand peak has been further confirmed. The decline in the production of the five major steel products has increased this week, mainly contributed by rebar. Considering the considerable profits of steel mills, the supply may remain at a high level in the short term. The steel market is expected to be in range - bound shock in the short term [6][7]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore slightly declined last Friday. The molten iron output has decreased for five consecutive weeks, but considering the good profitability of steel mills, the molten iron output may still remain at a high level. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased this week, and the port inventory has also slightly increased. The medium - term downward trend of iron ore prices is difficult to change, but the high molten iron output will support the prices. Short - term range - bound shock is expected [7]. Ferrosilicon/Ferromanganese - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese slightly rebounded last Friday. The demand for ferroalloys continued to decline. The procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese in June increased compared with May. The spot price of manganese ore remained weak. The market of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is expected to be in range - bound shock in the short term [8]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has escalated, increasing the probability of regional hot conflict, and crude oil faces similar risks as in 2022. The spot market was already tight before the conflict, but the long - term supply increase pattern remains unchanged. It is not recommended to chase long positions in the short term [9]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt has risen following the sharp increase in oil prices. The recent shipment volume has remained stable, and the inventory depletion has stagnated. As the demand approaches the peak season, the future depletion situation should be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [9]. PX - There are still many maintenance plans from June to July, and the PTA device operation rate has increased significantly. With the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices, the PX price will continue to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [9]. PTA - After the return of device maintenance, the supply has increased significantly, and the downstream production reduction continues. It is expected to turn into a slight inventory accumulation in June. After the June contract ends, the tightness of spot liquidity may be alleviated. It is expected to decline in the short term due to the increase in crude oil prices [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The short - term return of synthetic gas - based devices and the decline in downstream production reduction operation rate have led to a low decline in the short - term port visible inventory and a slight inventory accumulation in some factories. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of downstream demand, and the inventory depletion is postponed. The price will remain in shock [10][11]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber generally follows the polyester sector in a strong - side shock pattern. The terminal orders have recovered slowly, and the operation rate has declined. The inventory has accumulated again. It will follow the upward movement of the polyester sector due to the recent rise in oil prices [11]. Methanol - The reduction of port arrival plans has increased the concern about the tightness of cargo circulation, and the methanol price has strengthened under the promotion of geopolitical factors. There is still an upward driving force in the short term. However, the operation rate of inland devices has gradually increased, and the supply is loose. The overall industrial inventory is still low, and the long - term price has room to decline [11]. PP - The PP production has increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the new production capacity is still being put into operation. The downstream operation rate has slightly declined, and the fundamentals are deteriorating. But the futures price has rebounded following the energy and chemical products due to the rise in crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical factors to prevent a sharp fall after the rise [11]. LLDPE - In the short term, due to the influence of geopolitics, the contradiction in the PE market is concentrated on the cost side, and the price has rebounded following crude oil. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical factors to prevent a sharp fall after the rise [11]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The US consumer confidence has improved to some extent, but consumers are still cautious about the economic trend. The Sino - US talks in London have achieved certain results, but there is no excessive surprise. As the tariff suspension deadline on July 9 approaches, attention may turn to the high - tariff risk again. The demand peak season is coming to an end, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. If the production remains high and the demand continues to decline, inventory accumulation will start. It will be in shock in the short term [12]. Aluminum - From Wednesday to Friday last week, the Shanghai Aluminum 06 contract rose significantly for three consecutive days. The spot price increase was similar to the futures price in the first two days, and the premium changed little. On Friday, the spot price increase was much smaller than the futures price, and the premium declined significantly [12]. Aluminum Alloy - In the short and medium term, the market sentiment is warm, and it will be in a slightly strong shock. However, due to the seasonal off - season of demand and potential macro risks, and the obvious seasonal characteristics of ADC12 price, the upside space is limited [12]. Tin - On the supply side, the domestic tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the combined operation rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped significantly. The resumption of production in Myanmar may be delayed, and Thailand has suspended the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar. On the demand side, it has entered the off - season, and the orders in the electronics and automotive industries have decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. The price will be in a strong - side shock in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [13]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT grain market is supported by the geopolitical conflict, and the US soybeans are also supported by the US soybean oil market in the short term. The bull market of US soybean oil dominated by support policies has room for correction. The weather supports a good harvest. The US soybeans will maintain a large - range market, and the price may be strong in the short term due to the short - term net long - position covering [15]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and the weak basis market continues. The market has priced in the future shortage of imported soybeans more. The domestic rapeseed import supply is tightening, and the port inventory is decreasing. The futures - end risk preference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may increase, and the low - valued spot soybean meal may attract more buying interest, which will strengthen the long - position support of soybean meal [15]. Oils and Fats - The US EPA has modified the RFS rules, and the RVO meets market expectations. The Israel - Iran conflict has boosted the international oil and fat risk preference. The domestic palm oil import profit is inverted, and the shipment has improved. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are stable, but the short - term may follow the external market to be strong, and the soybean - palm oil price inversion may further expand [15]. Corn - The wheat purchase policy has improved the market sentiment, and the new wheat listing has increased the market grain supply. The flour mill operation rate is not high, and the demand for flour is low. The corn market has seen a decrease in short - term shipments, and the spot price has generally risen. The wheat - corn price difference has shrunk, and the corn may face a high - level consolidation in the short term [15]. Hogs - The pig - raising enterprises have significantly reduced the weight of hogs, and the planned slaughter has been completed smoothly. The pig price has been under pressure. The short - term weather has affected the slaughter, and the purchase and storage orders have increased. The pig price shows signs of stabilization. The futures 09 contract has rebounded significantly. However, the pig market is still in the off - season, and the 09 contract's profit expectation should be reduced [15].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250616
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-06-16 02:01