冠通期货资讯早间报-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important macro - level news, and updates on various futures markets. It also touches on the impact of geopolitical events on the financial markets, especially the influence of the Iran - Israel conflict on the oil market. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Trends - Domestic futures: SC crude oil rose over 6%, palm oil rose over 3%, and soybean oil rose over 2%. Meanwhile, caustic soda, 20 - number rubber, and ethylene glycol (EG) fell over 1% [2] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $3452.60 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 3.17%. COMEX silver futures rose 0.21% to $36.37 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.64% [3] - International oil prices: US crude oil futures rose 7.55% to $73.18 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 13.32%. Brent crude oil futures rose 7.5% to $74.56 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 12.17% [4] - London base metals: LME copper fell 0.56% to $9647.5 per ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.47%. LME zinc fell 0.61% to $2626.5 per ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.48% [5] - International agricultural products: US soybeans rose 2.52%, US corn rose 1.43%, US soybean oil rose 6.30%, US soybean meal fell 1.09%, and US wheat rose 3.13% [6] Important Information - Macro - Geopolitical: Trump said the US may intervene in the Iran - Israel conflict. Israel had a chance to eliminate Iran's supreme leader, but Trump opposed it. Iran launched missile attacks on Israel, and Iran's response to Israel's attacks will be "unrestricted" [9][10][6] - Monetary: In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan. At the end of May, M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, and M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [10] - Shipping: As of June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index fell 152.11 points, while the China Export Container Freight Index rose 7.6% [10] - Fed: Allianz analysts expect the Fed to keep the policy rate at 4.25% - 4.50% until December before cutting interest rates [13] - Central bank operations: On June 16, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation with a 6 - month term [14] - Commerce: The Ministry of Commerce will further expand opening - up and relax market access for foreign investment [14] - Regulation: The CSRC announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will come into effect on October 9, 2025 [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - LPG: The maximum volume of LPG standard warehouse receipts of Ningbo Baidinian LPG Co., Ltd. was increased from 60,000 tons to 120,000 tons, and the daily shipping speed was increased from 4,000 tons to 8,000 tons [16] - Caustic soda: A large alumina plant in Shandong adjusted the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda, reducing it by 10 yuan per ton to 820 yuan per ton [16] - Oil supply: Iran's fuel distribution system is normal, and Goldman Sachs expects no disruption to Middle - East oil supply. It predicts WTI and Brent crude oil prices to drop to $55 and $59 per barrel respectively in Q4 2025, and to $52 and $56 per barrel in 2026 [19] - Oil reserves: The IEA's statement on releasing oil reserves was criticized by OPEC [20] - Nuclear talks: Iran cancelled the nuclear talks with the US [20] Metal Futures - Precious metals: Commerzbank expects gold prices to reach $3400 per ounce by the end of this year and $3600 per ounce by the end of next year. It also gives price forecasts for silver, platinum, and palladium. Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid - 2026 [22][27] - Zinc oxide: Environmental inspections in some regions led to production cuts in zinc oxide enterprises and difficulties in raw material procurement [22] - Metal inventories: Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin inventories decreased, while lead and nickel inventories increased. Japanese aluminum inventories increased by 3.3% to 331,000 tons by the end of May [23][26] - Silicon: From June 6 to June 12, the weekly output of sample silicon plants in Xinjiang was 31,670 tons, with a stable operating rate of 65% [25] Black - Series Futures - Ferroalloy: In June, HeSteel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased by 300 yuan per ton, and the tender quantity increased by 65 tons. The first - round inquiry price of HeSteel's silicon - manganese in June was 5500 yuan per ton, down from 5850 yuan per ton in May [29] - Real estate: Guangzhou plans to optimize real estate policies, cancel purchase and sales restrictions, and lower down - payment ratios and interest rates. The State Council will optimize real - estate policies to promote the stable development of the real - estate market [29][33] - Iron ore: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports increased by 106.45 tons, and the daily handling volume decreased by 12.74 tons [29] - Steel production: In early June 2025, the average daily output of crude steel and pig iron of key steel enterprises increased, while that of steel products decreased [33] - Steel inventory: The total urban steel inventory decreased by 19.36 tons this week, with decreases in construction steel and hot - rolled coil inventories [33] Agricultural Futures - Soybean oil: A 9000 - ton soybean oil procurement auction by Cofco on June 13 failed [35] - Soybean crushing: In the 24th week (June 7 - 13), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 225.87 tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 2.86 tons lower than expected [35] - Cotton: As of June 12, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.19% week - on - week to 443,100 tons [36] - Argentine soybeans: As of June 12, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season was 95% [37] - US soybeans: Analysts expect the US soybean crushing volume in May to reach a record high for the same period, 1.7% higher than in April and 5.4% higher than in May 2024 [40] - Pig farming: As of June 13, self - breeding and self - raising pig farming had a loss of 2.9 yuan per head, and purchasing piglets for farming had a loss of 210.64 yuan per head [40] - Biofuels: The US government proposes to increase the amount of biofuels blended into fuel in the next two years [40] - Palm oil: Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 increased by 26.3% compared to the same period last month [41] Financial Markets - Commodities: The intensifying conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a surge in global funds flowing into the crude oil market. On June 13, the total trading volume of US crude oil options reached 681,000 contracts [43] - Bonds: In the first month of the launch of science - and - technology innovation bonds, 147 institutions issued over 374.8 billion yuan. Chinese bond markets are becoming a key allocation direction for foreign public funds. Last week, 15 new funds were established, with bond - type funds accounting for 85.66% of the total issuance scale [46]