产区持续多雨天气，棉花窄幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2024/25 sugar production season has ended successfully. As of the end of May, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable precipitation in Guangxi and Yunnan benefits sugarcane growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is also improving. Globally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited impact from Brazil's drought, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1] - Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in China's cotton - growing areas since sowing are suitable for cotton growth. Most cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is at the fifth true leaf to squaring stage. The development period of most cotton is 3 to 15 days earlier than in previous years. Weather's impact on yield per unit needs continuous attention [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - External Market Quotes: On June 14 - 15, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $67.9, also with a 0.00% change [3] - Spot Prices: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning dropped from 6035.0 to 6020.0, a - 0.25% change; in Kunming, it dropped from 5855.0 to 5835.0, a - 0.34% change. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.07% change, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 14700.0 to 14800.0, a 0.68% change [3] - Spreads: All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton futures contracts from June 14 - 15, 2025, remained unchanged, with a 0.00% change [3] Import Price, Profit, and Other Data - Import Price: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA dropped from 78.05 to 77.8, a - 0.32% change [3] - Profit Space: The sugar import profit remained at 1638.0 from June 12 - 13, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - Options: The implied volatility of SR509C5700 was 0.0843, and the historical volatility of SR509 was 8.94; the implied volatility of SR509P5700 was 0.0829. The implied volatility of CF509C13400 was 0.097, and the historical volatility of CF509 was 12.67; the implied volatility of CF509P13400 was 0.0959 [3] - Warehouse Receipts: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 29116.0 to 28736.0, a - 1.31% change; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10769.0 to 10753.0, a - 0.15% change [3]