中国CPI指数环比下降，沪铝或震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend [2][36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 19,925 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,420 yuan/ton [6] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures fluctuated with a slightly stronger trend, ranging from 2,445 - 2,528 US dollars/ton [10] 2. Spot Analysis - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 20,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,665 yuan/ton, 20,795 yuan/ton, 20,695 yuan/ton, and 20,650 yuan/ton respectively [13] - As of June 13, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum premium/discount was maintained at around a discount of 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [13] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In May 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity was 89.5 million tons, the total capacity was 112.42 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.61%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [19] - As of June 5, 2025, the total domestic inventory was 55,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 tons, in Bayuquan was 34,000 tons, and in Qingdao Port was 21,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [19] - As of May 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.139 million tons, the total capacity was 45.202 million tons, and the operating rate was 97.65%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [19] 4. Inventory Situation - As of June 13, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,001 tons, a decrease of 8,164 tons from the previous week [28] - As of June 12, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 355,600 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 9.45% [28] - As of June 12, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 426,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 45,000 tons, in Wuxi was 109,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 13,000 tons, in Foshan was 182,000 tons, in Tianjin was 19,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 48,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 5,000 tons [28] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The latest US economic data shows that inflation pressure is more moderate than expected, while the labor market may be deteriorating, and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates is rising [34] - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The national producer price index for industrial products decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [34] - The operating rate of alumina enterprises has increased slightly, and the alumina inventory has gradually recovered but remains at a low level. The electrolytic aluminum capacity continues the slow growth trend. The Shanghai aluminum inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the inventory level is at an extremely low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [34]