锌周报：避险情绪升温，锌价承压下行-20250616

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a trend of first declining and then rising. The Sino - US negotiation in London had no obvious changes. US inflation data in May was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. China's inflation data remained weak, and May's credit and social financing data had both positive and negative aspects. The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated on Friday, leading to a decline in market risk appetite [3][11]. - Overseas zinc ore inflows increased, raw materials remained abundant, and smelters' bargaining power recovered. The internal and external processing fees increased steadily. With the repair of profits and sufficient raw materials, the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end was smooth. It is expected that the supply of refined zinc will recover strongly in June, and the supply side will gradually loosen. On the demand side, galvanized pipe orders decreased, and galvanized structural part orders decreased marginally. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased significantly, but there was a lack of continuous export orders. Environmental inspections slightly affected the production of zinc oxide enterprises, and their operating rate decreased slightly [4][11]. - Overall, the Sino - US negotiation had no obvious changes, and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict increased macro - uncertainty. The market's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The zinc price center moved down. However, downstream restocking at low prices made the inventory - reduction rhythm fluctuate, and it was difficult for the zinc price to decline rapidly. It is expected that the zinc price will remain oscillating weakly, and continuous attention should be paid to macro risks and inventory changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE zinc price decreased from 22,385 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price decreased from 2,662.5 dollars/ton to 2,626.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.41 to 8.31. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,546 tons to 45,466 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 5,975 tons to 131,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.22 million tons to 7.71 million tons. The spot premium increased from 150 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2507 of Shanghai zinc futures first declined and then rose. Affected by the continuous increase in inventory on Monday, short - sellers increased their positions, and the zinc price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing at low prices increased, and with the Sino - US negotiation and the increasing expectation of a rate cut, the macro - environment improved. The zinc price recovered the decline at the beginning of the week, closing at 21,815 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.55%. The zinc price center moved down on Friday night. Due to macro - uncertainty and high inventory, the LME zinc price remained weak, closing at 2,626.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.35% [6] - As of June 13th, in the Shanghai spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,185 - 22,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 350 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream price was 22,205 - 22,340 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream price was 22,190 - 22,390 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream price was 22,190 - 22,390 yuan/ton, with a premium of 270 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. As the inflow of imported zinc ingots increased and the downstream had some inventory after purchasing at low prices, the purchasing intensity weakened in the second half of the week, and traders lowered the spot premium. The market transaction was relatively dull [7] - As of June 13th, the LME zinc inventory was 131,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,975 tons. The SHFE inventory was 45,466 tons, a decrease of 1,546 tons from last week. As of June 12th, the social inventory was 7.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from Monday and 0.22 million tons from last Thursday. After the zinc price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton during the week, downstream purchasing at low prices led to a significant decline in inventory in many places, especially in Shanghai and Tianjin. The inventory in Guangdong changed little due to the slow downstream pick - up rhythm and normal arrivals during the week [8] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, reached a principle agreement on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns. The US Federal Appellate Court extended the validity of Trump's tariffs, and a key hearing will be held at the end of July. US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI and core PPI both increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the core PPI growth rate hitting a new low in nearly a year [9] - China's CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In the first five months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 2.3% year - on - year [10] 3. Industry News - As of the week ending June 13th, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,600 yuan/metal ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week; the imported zinc concentrate index was 53 dollars/dry ton, an increase of 2.65 dollars/dry ton compared to the previous week [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend chart of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio chart, the spot premium chart, the LME premium chart, the inventory charts of SHFE, LME, social, and bonded areas, the zinc ore import profit - loss chart, the smelter profit chart, the domestic refined zinc production chart, the refined zinc net import chart, and the downstream primary enterprise operating rate chart [13][15][17]