工业硅、多晶硅日评：低位整理-20250616

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. There is no expectation of a reversal in silicon prices, and it is expected to remain under pressure at a low level in the short term. However, considering the current silicon prices are at an absolute low, the subsequent downward space may be relatively limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, and the transaction price of polysilicon has declined. Considering the strong uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the problem of over - capacity, it is expected that the polysilicon price will hardly show an upward trend in the short term. The strategy is mainly to short on rebounds [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: On June 16, 2025, the average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.48% to 7,345 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1]. - Supply Side: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. Although the southwest production area is approaching the wet season, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall starting rate has declined [1]. - Demand Side: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but the demand is weak. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, the actual transaction price has declined, and the overall starting rate has decreased, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: On June 16, 2025, N - type dense material decreased by 1.43% to 34.5 yuan/kg compared with the previous day; polysilicon re - feed material decreased by 1.52% to 32.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material decreased by 1.56% to 31.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material decreased by 1.67% to 29.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.33% to 33,695 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1]. - Supply Side: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, and the overall output is maintained within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand Side: The photovoltaic market as a whole is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and polysilicon has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and the delivery price of some components is close to a new low, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - From June 6th to June 12th, the weekly output of sample silicon plants in Xinjiang was 31,670 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 65%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The operating capacity in Xinjiang was basically stable during the week, and the operating rate remained unchanged. There is room for an increase in the operating rate in Xinjiang in the future. After the recent rebound of the industrial silicon futures price, the quantity of spot sales at the point price by silicon enterprises in Xinjiang has increased significantly, and the equity inventory of silicon enterprises has decreased significantly compared with the previous period [1]. - On June 13th, it was reported that in terms of silicon wafer prices, this week, the price of N - type 183 was in the range of 0.90 - 0.92 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210R was in the range of 1.05 - 1.1 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210 was in the range of 1.25 - 1.3 yuan/piece. This week, silicon wafer prices continued to decline. After the Shanghai SNEC Photovoltaic Exhibition ended, enterprises were pessimistic about the price trends of various links in the photovoltaic industry chain, and it is expected that the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and auxiliary materials will continue to decline [1].