Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with the Shanghai Copper main contract running in the range of 77,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton and LME Copper 3M in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may rise first and then fall, maintaining a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and LME Aluminum 3M in the range of 2,440 - 2,560 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak operation [4]. - Zinc prices have a large downward risk in the future [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton for LME Tin [7][8]. - Nickel prices may further decline after the spot demand weakens. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and sell short at high prices. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract running in the range of 58,800 - 60,600 yuan/ton [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the second half of the year, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to continue a slight oscillatory trend in the short term [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. LME Copper slightly declined by 0.24% to 9,647 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 78,350 yuan/ton [1]. - The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 5,000 tons to 102,000 tons, LME decreased by 18,000 tons to 114,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 6,000 tons to 176,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 7,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss of copper expanded, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The LME market's Cash/3M premium was 73.4 dollars/ton, and the domestic basis quotation declined [1]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 970 yuan/ton, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined [1]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, and demand weakened slightly [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices rose. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.84%, and LME Aluminum rose 2.1% to 2,503 dollars/ton [3]. - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline. The social inventory was 460,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons. The bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 120,000 tons. The inventory decline led to a significant expansion of the monthly spread, and the domestic basis first rose and then fell [3]. - The LME market's aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 353,000 tons, and Cash/3M was slightly at a discount [3]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to rise slightly, and the aluminum plant inventory increased slightly [3]. - The operating rate of aluminum products oscillated and declined, the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased, and the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, profiles, and cables decreased [3]. Lead - As of Friday, the Shanghai Lead index rose 0.26% to 16,939 yuan/ton, and LME Lead 3S fell 1 to 1,991.5 dollars/ton [4]. - The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 51,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 268,800 tons [4]. - Downstream battery enterprises promoted sales by reducing prices, terminal purchases were weak, and although the operating rate of battery enterprises recovered, the提货 situation was poor [4]. - The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the operating rate rose to a historical high of around 70%. The profit of recycled lead remained low, and the finished product inventory of recycled lead remained at a high level of 29,000 tons [4]. Zinc - As of Friday, the Shanghai Zinc index fell 1.40% to 21,599 yuan/ton, and LME Zinc 3S fell 53 to 2,610 dollars/ton [6]. - The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 81,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 132,000 tons [6]. - Zinc ore remained in a surplus situation, the profit of zinc smelters increased again after a long - term flat period, and zinc ingot production was expected to increase significantly [6]. - Terminal consumption was weak. Although the domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased again, the in - transit inventory and downstream raw material inventory increased, and the overall domestic visible inventory stabilized [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices oscillated. The ban on the transportation of tin ore from southern Myanmar through Thailand continued to ferment, and the tin ore imports in China in June were expected to decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons. The shipment volume of the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) decreased significantly in June [7]. - The raw material inventory in the main tin - producing areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi was generally less than 30 days, and some smelting enterprises began maintenance or gradient production cuts, further reducing the supply of tin ingots [7]. - Terminal enterprises entered the seasonal off - season, orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics grew weakly, and the production schedule of photovoltaics in June declined month - on - month. After the tin price rebounded to around 260,000 yuan/ton, the downstream purchasing willingness decreased significantly [8]. - The SMM's three - place inventory was 8,856 tons, a decrease of 216 tons from last week [8]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices oscillated downward. The cancellation of the ore export ban by the Philippine government in the middle of the week suppressed nickel prices, and nickel prices once fell below 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The impact of the weather in the Philippines on nickel mines weakened, and the loading efficiency in Surigao improved. However, the short - term shortage of nickel mines in Indonesia was difficult to change, and the ore price remained stable [9]. - The weak demand for stainless steel dragged down the nickel - iron price, and the latest transaction price of nickel - iron dropped to 925 yuan/nickel [9]. - The supply of intermediate products was still tight in circulation, but some nickel - iron production lines were converted to produce nickel ice in June, and the supply was expected to loosen [9]. - The cost side provided some support for the price of nickel sulfate, but the downstream ternary materials had a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate, and the price might be under pressure in the future [9]. - There was no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals of refined nickel, the overall spot transaction was average, the Russian nickel resources were in short supply, but other brands were relatively sufficient [9]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC of lithium carbonate spot index closed at 60,437 yuan, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous working day and 0.17% for the week [11]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,800 - 61,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 200 yuan (- 0.33%) from the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,500 - 59,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 0.34% from the previous day [11]. - The LC2509 contract closed at 59,800 yuan, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous closing price and 1.84% for the week. The main contract closing price was at a discount of 900 yuan to the MMLC's average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate [11]. - The CIF price of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 600 - 625 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.82% for the week [11]. - The supply - side clearance was slow, enterprises reduced costs and increased efficiency, domestic supply showed strong resilience, weekly production returned to a high level, and the SMM inventory increased to a record high [11]. - The market lacked confidence in the demand in the second half of the year, and the relaxation of the domestic mandatory energy storage policy and tariff uncertainties impacted the lithium - battery demand [11]. Alumina - On June 13, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.45% to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position was 444,000 lots, an increase of 5,000 lots from the previous trading day [13]. - The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 30 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - The spot price in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, at a premium of 352 yuan/ton to the 07 contract [13]. - The MYSTEEL's FOB price in Australia remained at 367 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 28 yuan/ton, with the import window open [13]. - The futures warehouse receipt on Friday was 80,100 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from the previous trading day [13]. - The CIF price of bauxite in Guinea remained at 74 dollars/ton, and that in Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday afternoon, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% (- 35) for the day, and the unilateral position was 277,200 lots, an increase of 140 lots from the previous trading day [15]. - In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and that of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in Wuxi decreased by 50 to 12,750 yuan/ton [15]. - The Foshan basis was 250 (+ 35), and the Wuxi basis was 200 (- 15) [15]. - The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan decreased by 50 to 8,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 remained unchanged at 7,750 yuan/ton [15]. - The ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 940 yuan/nickel, the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area remained unchanged at 7,900 yuan/50 - base ton [15]. - The futures inventory was 118,383 tons, a decrease of 602 from the previous day. The social inventory increased to 1,145,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%, and the inventory of 300 - series was 686,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81% [15].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250616
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-06-16 02:35