生猪周报：降重继续猪价稳中偏弱调整-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The demand in the first half of the year is off - peak, while the second half is peak season. The fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. For the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - Main Contract Basis Situation: Against the backdrop of spot price decline due to weight reduction, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted in a moderately strong manner. On June 13, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 320 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Price Changes of Each Contract: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - Inter - monthly Spread Changes: Against the backdrop of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - Pig Price and Slaughter Volume: A decrease in slaughter volume and a drop in pig prices indicate pressure on the supply side, leading to the decline in pig prices [14]. - Regional Price Difference: The regional price difference is gradually returning to normal [16]. - Fat - Standard Price Difference: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted weakly in a fluctuating manner. If it strengthens, it may weaken the willingness of the breeding end to reduce weight [18]. - Fresh Sales and Hair - White Price Difference: The terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - Breeding Profit: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - Slaughter Weight: The slaughter weight is decreasing rapidly, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually being released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: As of the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month change and a 1.3% year - on - year increase. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows in May continued to increase [28]. - Sow Culling Situation: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, indicating a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm: This week, the price of 15kg piglets continued to decline, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a slight weakening trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 20% year - on - year increase. The frozen product market has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the import volume of pork was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].