五矿期货贵金属日报-20250616

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year has risen due to the US inflation data being lower than expected, which will drive the silver price to be strong in the future [1]. - The core driver of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is the US Treasury bond interest expenditure. This year's interest - rate cut is crucial for maintaining the US dollar's credit. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September and December interest - rate meetings. It is believed that Fed Chairman Powell will make a dovish statement in the June interest - rate meeting and give guidance on the interest - rate cut rhythm in the second half of the year [2]. - For precious metals, especially silver prices, a long - position thinking should be maintained. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 774 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 8659 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [2]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Gold - On June 16, 2025, Shanghai Gold rose 0.64% to 798.02 yuan/gram, COMEX gold rose 0.45% to 3468.10 US dollars/ounce. Au(T + D) rose 1.35% to 790.86 yuan/gram, and London gold rose 1.30% to 3435.35 US dollars/ounce [1][3]. - From June 12 - 13, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price, trading volume, and open interest all increased, with increases of 1.36%, 17.91%, and 0.29% respectively. SHFE gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and precipitation funds also increased, with increases of 1.17%, 34.24%, 2.43%, 1.85%, and 3.63% respectively [6]. Silver - On June 16, 2025, Shanghai Silver rose 0.24% to 8839.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX silver rose 0.26% to 36.45 US dollars/ounce. Ag(T + D) rose 0.26% to 8793.00 yuan/kilogram, while London silver fell 0.29% to 36.08 US dollars/ounce [1][3]. - From June 12 - 13, 2025, COMEX silver's closing price decreased by 0.11%, while open interest and inventory increased by 6.69% and 0.05% respectively. SHFE silver's trading volume increased by 25.52%, while closing price, open interest, inventory, and precipitation funds decreased, with decreases of 0.32%, 3.15%, 1.31%, and 3.45% respectively [6]. Other Related Data - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.41%, and the US dollar index was 98.27. The Dow Jones Index fell 1.79%, the S&P 500 fell 1.13%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.30% [1]. - The VIX Index rose 15.54%, the London FTSE 100 fell 0.39%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.89% [3]. Group 4: US Economic Data Inflation Data - The US May CPI year - on - year was 2.4%, lower than the expected and previous value of 2.5%. The core CPI year - on - year was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% [1]. - The US May PPI year - on - year was 2.6%, in line with expectations, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%. The core PPI year - on - year was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3% [1]. Employment Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000 [1].