银河期货每日早盘观察-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall balance sheet of new US soybean crops has tightened, especially under the influence of biodiesel policy adjustments, making the overall supply - demand situation more tense. South American supply is generally loose, with potential export pressure in Brazil and stable high - yield in Argentina. In China, soybean arrivals are increasing while demand is good, but there is still some pressure [4]. - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, hitting a four - year low. In China, the delayed summer stocking demand, combined with the short - term weakness of raw sugar, has led to higher import profits, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [9]. - Last Friday night, the EPA's proposed RVO exceeded expectations, causing the US soybean oil to hit the daily limit. Affected by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, Brent crude oil also opened higher. Oils and fats are expected to run strongly in the short term, following crude oil and US biodiesel. Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is not overly loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, with a pattern of oversupply, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil market is still strong [17]. - US corn sowing is accelerating, and the weather is favorable, so the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is relatively scarce, with rising prices in the Northeast and stable port prices. It is rumored that imported corn will be auctioned. The spot price of corn in North China is strong, and the wheat price continues to rise. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened, and the corn spot price is relatively stable. The 07 corn contract has declined, and the basis has narrowed. Corn spot is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - After the continuous decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm has slowed down. However, due to the increasing monthly slaughter of large - scale enterprises and the high inventory of ordinary farmers and secondary fattening, the overall supply pressure is still relatively high [30]. - Peanut spot trading is still scarce. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined and are currently stable at around 4.6 yuan per catty. Imports have decreased significantly, and the price of imported peanuts is also falling. Peanut oil mills' purchase prices are relatively stable, but downstream consumption remains weak. Peanut meal prices are stable, and peanut oil prices are stable. Oil mills are profitable, but the purchase volume of large - scale oil mills is small. The peanut market for oil is weak. The market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, and peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term with potential for further decline [34]. - After May, with the arrival of the rainy season, egg consumption has entered the off - season, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. For futures, considering the current price level, the downward space is limited. For far - month contracts, as egg prices weaken, the willingness to cull laying hens has increased. If the culling volume continues to rise in the future, which may improve the egg supply, the August and September contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the upward space may be limited if the supply side is not significantly improved [43]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April had a negative impact on fruit setting in some areas of Shaanxi. The futures price of apples in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is affected by two factors. On the macro level, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries makes the cotton trend highly uncertain. On the fundamental level, the national commercial cotton inventory is currently at a low level. If the inventory - reduction speed remains the same in the future, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new - flower listing, and cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - External Market Situation: CBOT soybean index rose 0.69% to 1062.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 298.6 US dollars per short ton [2]. - Relevant Information: US May soybean crushing is expected to reach a record high for the same period, with an average estimate of 193.519 million bushels. Brazil's soybean exports from March to May increased by 3.3 million tons to 44 million tons. CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week but decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - Logic Analysis: The new US soybean balance sheet has tightened, while South American supply is loose. In China, there is still some pressure despite increasing arrivals and good demand [4]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term short - selling operations for single - side trading; M11 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage; selling call options for options trading [5]. Sugar - External Market Situation: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.16 (0.96%) to 16.54 cents per pound [6]. - Important Information: Sugar prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants have decreased. As of Friday, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 707 week - on - week, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged. China's sugar imports in May are expected to be about 400,000 tons, much higher than 20,000 tons in the same period last year. The sales - to - production ratio of domestic sugar in the 24/25 season as of the end of May exceeded 70% [7]. - Logic Analysis: Raw sugar has been affected by the expected increase in global supply, while in China, the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline [9]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, maintain a short position with partial profit - taking and partial holding; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils - External Market Situation: The price of CBOT US soybean oil changed by 6.48% to 50.61 cents per pound, and the price of BMD Malaysian palm oil changed by 2.27% to 3927 ringgit per ton [14]. - Relevant Information: Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 increased by 26.3% compared to the same period last month. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and about 18% of US corn planting areas were affected [15]. - Logic Analysis: The EPA's proposal and geopolitical factors have led to a strong short - term trend in oils and fats. India's tax reduction on crude palm oil may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is accumulating inventory, and the rapeseed oil market has an oversupply pattern but strong bottom support [17]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, oils and fats are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may fall back after the event and sentiment fade; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - External Market Changes: CBOT corn futures rose, with the main contract rebounding 0.2% to 444.5 cents per bushel [22]. - Important Information: In the US corn - producing states, 94.44% of the areas are likely to have higher - than - normal temperatures and 61% are likely to have higher - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. The wheat market price is rising. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas and 18% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought. The expected corn planting area in the US 2025/2026 is 95.3 million acres, unchanged from May. The purchase price in the northern port is stable, and the corn price in the North China production area is strong [23][25]. - Logic Analysis: US corn sowing is accelerating, and the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is scarce, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, the outer - market 07 corn is oscillating at the bottom, and take a wait - and - see approach for the 07 contract; for arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on corn and starch spreads, buy the 09 starch contract and short the 09 corn contract when the spread is low, and hold the position of buying corn and shorting the 07 corn contract; for options, consider a strategy of selling options at high prices for those with spot inventory [27][28]. Pigs - Relevant Information: Pig prices are rebounding in most regions. As of June 13, the prices of 7 - kg and 15 - kg piglets remained unchanged, while the price of 50 - kg sows decreased by 3 yuan per head. On June 13, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.14 points, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.3% [30]. - Logic Analysis: After the decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high due to the increasing slaughter of large - scale enterprises and high inventory [30]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spreads; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanuts - Important Information: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is small, and the price of peanut oil is strong with some negotiation space. Peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased by 5280 tons week - on - week, and the peanut oil inventory decreased by 170 tons week - on - week [32][33]. - Logic Analysis: Peanut spot trading is scarce, imports are decreasing, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, so peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, short peanuts at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [35][36][37]. Eggs - Important Information: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.22 yuan per catty compared to last Friday, and the price in the main sales areas decreased by 0.18 yuan per catty. The national mainstream egg price is mostly stable. In May, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year. The egg - chick hatching volume in May decreased by 4% month - on - month and increased by 1% year - on - year. As of June 13, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the average slaughter age decreased by 3 days. As of June 12, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The average inventory in the production and circulation links increased, and the egg - farming profit decreased [40][41][42]. - Trading Logic: Egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price is expected to be weak. For futures, the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of laying hens increases, the August and September contracts may rise, but the upward space may be limited [43]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, consider building long positions in the August and September far - month contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [44]. Apples - Important Information: As of June 11, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas was 1.2746 million tons, a decrease of 107,400 tons week - on - week, and the sales speed slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import volume increased by 123.9% year - on - year. The downstream demand for apples is weak, and the impact of seasonal fruits is significant. The new - season apple bagging is mostly in the later stage. The price of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable, with more transactions in high - cost - performance products [45][47][48]. - Trading Logic: The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the price of early - maturing apples. The futures price in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - External Market Influence: ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.37 (0.55%) to 67.90 cents per pound [52]. - Important Information: Cotton spot trading is cold, and the purchase intention of spinning mills is weak. The sales basis is firm. As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton futures sellers decreased by 1511. From June 1 to 11, the rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas was lower than normal. The southwest monsoon resumed on Thursday [53][54][57]. - Trading Logic: The uncertainty of trade policies affects the cotton trend, and the low commercial inventory may lead to tight supply before the new - flower listing, so cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [59][60].