大消费行业周报（6月第2周）：“国补”政策调整促进行业回归理性竞争-20250616

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the consumer sector, suggesting a cautious approach due to recent market fluctuations and policy adjustments [1]. Core Insights - The adjustment of the "National Subsidy" policy is expected to promote rational competition within the industry. As of May 31, 2025, the total consumption of "National Subsidy" funds reached approximately 1550-1650 billion CNY, with an expected consumption of about 500 billion CNY in June alone, leading to a total of 2100 billion CNY in the first half of the year, which is 70% of the total fund pool of 3000 billion CNY [3][4]. - The implementation of a "quota model" in various regions aims to prevent the misallocation of funds and encourages brands to focus on product quality and functionality rather than relying solely on subsidies. This shift is anticipated to reduce the intensity of price wars in the industry [3][4]. - The inclusion of leading tea beverage companies in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is seen as a positive development, enhancing liquidity in the sector and opening up investment opportunities. The market size for ready-to-drink tea in China is projected to grow from 517.5 billion CNY in 2023 to over 1.16 trillion CNY by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% [3][4]. Market Weekly Review - For the week of June 9-13, 2025, the consumer sector, excluding textiles and apparel, experienced declines. The weekly performance of various segments included textiles and apparel (+0.05%), social services (-0.01%), beauty and personal care (-1.22%), commercial retail (-1.49%), home appliances (-3.26%), and food and beverage (-4.37%) [3][4]. - Notable stock performances included Jiao Da Ang Li (+29.55%) and Qing Mu Technology (+30.01%) leading the gains, while Jun Yao Health (-16.89%) and *ST Ren Le (-85.09%) faced significant losses [3][4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report highlights various industry developments, including the announcement of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy for Indonesian citizens, which is expected to boost tourism and consumption [15]. - Shenzhen's tax authority reported a significant increase in sales of tax refund goods, with a year-on-year growth of over 210% in the first five months of 2025, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [15]. - The report also notes the opening of a flagship experience store by Gree Electric in the health and smart home sector, reflecting the company's strategic expansion [17].