黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250616

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend. Last week, the cooling of US inflation strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a double - drop in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. The attack on a nuclear facility in Iran boosted safe - haven demand, and central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows jointly boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and retail data. Geopolitical risks may push up the gold price, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the impact of hawkish statements from the Fed or better - than - expected economic data [7]. - Silver: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, and it may be close to the end of the trend. Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but the game of Fed policies led to profit - taking, resulting in high - level volatility throughout the week. The strong industrial attribute (surge in photovoltaic demand and repair of the gold - silver ratio), combined with the weakening US dollar, magnifies the volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial supply gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and the pressure of long - position profit - taking. The logic of catch - up growth remains unchanged, but the volatility intensifies [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, US inflation cooling, geopolitical events, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's meeting and data. Geopolitical risks may push up the price, but beware of Fed's hawkish statements and strong economic data [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 774 - 782, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12]. - Related Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][22][24] Silver Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [34]. - Trend Logic: Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but Fed policy games led to profit - taking. Strong industrial attributes and a weak US dollar magnify volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's meeting and economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and profit - taking pressure [34]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [35]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would run strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper pressure at 8900 - 9000 [37]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37]. - Related Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][49]