华宝期货铁矿石晨报：供给持续回升，短期偏弱运行-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it should be treated bearishly [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors increase price uncertainty. In the short term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The overall demand maintains a downward trend, and the expected growth rate of the supply side (arrival) increases month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the black series fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand relationship of finished products showed obvious off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand. The inventory of finished products continued to decline at a low level. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of US household appliance tariffs on the demand for plates. The supply of iron ore shows a seasonal incremental feature. The carbon element continuously gives way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit is not significantly compressed due to the price decline. The domestic demand for iron ore continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level [3] Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly. The shipment from Australia increased significantly, while the shipment from Brazil declined from a high level, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. Coupled with the fiscal year volume - rushing of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that the overseas ore shipment will maintain a steady recovery trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - The domestic demand has declined from a high level but is still at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks. The current daily average is 241.61 (month - on - month - 0.19). The blast furnace is mainly under regular maintenance. The current profitability level of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Coupled with the full - depth losses of the short - process, it is expected that the molten iron will show an overall high - level decline trend but with a low downward slope. The high demand supports the price [3] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ore at the steel mill level increased month - on - month. The daily consumption continued to decline but was still at a high level in the same period. With the increase in the arrival volume and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory accumulated this period. Due to the weak market expectation for demand, the restocking expectation is weak. It is expected that the inventory will tend to accumulate later, but due to the high demand, the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [3]