甲醇周报：地缘紧张再次升级，甲醇或偏强运行-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Methanol is likely to run strongly due to geopolitical tensions, and long - position operations should be considered [10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - From last Monday to Thursday, methanol futures fluctuated slightly higher. On Friday, due to the sudden attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, the geopolitical situation became extremely tense, and methanol futures rose sharply. By the Friday afternoon close, the methanol 2509 contract closed at 2,389 yuan/ton, up 5.43% from the previous week. In the spot market, the port methanol market price continued to be strong, and the inland market rose slightly [14] Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production continued to rise slightly. The output was 1,982,656 tons, an increase of 572 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [16] - Downstream Demand: As of June 12, 2025, the olefin industry maintained a high - level operation, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions at 84.26%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde had different changes [19][20] - Inventory: As of June 11, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 379,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 302,100 tons, an increase of 39,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 15.22%. The port sample inventory was 652,200 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 12.22% [22][27] - Profit: As of June 12, the profits of most methanol production enterprises improved, with the profit of Hebei coke - oven gas to methanol averaging 122 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37.46%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol full - cost was 32.08 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 147.72%. However, the average profit of southwest natural gas to methanol was - 254 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30.26% [29] Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of methanol device restarts is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 2.0117 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.27%, an increase from last week [35] - Downstream Demand: This week, the olefin industry may see a decline in the start - up rate; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde may decline; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to change little [36][37][38] - Inventory: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises will be 351,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. Port methanol inventory may decline due to a significant reduction in the unloading of visible foreign vessels [38][39]