苹果周报：需求表现一般，果价变化不明显-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the downstream demand for apples remained weak. The increase in the variety and volume of seasonal fruits had a significant impact on apples. The off - season trading in apple - producing areas was poor, and the purchase volume of merchants decreased. The new - season apple bagging is mostly in the later stage, and attention should be paid to bagging data and weather conditions. It is predicted that the price of apple futures in June will likely maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [6][15]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies Spot Analysis - The downstream demand for apples was weak. Seasonal fruits had a significant impact on apples, and the off - season trading in apple - producing areas was poor. In Shandong, the trading focused on high - cost - effective goods, and in the west, merchants mostly shipped by themselves. The new - season apple bagging was mostly in the later stage. In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade sliced red apples was 3.80 - 4.00 yuan/jin, etc. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of orchard - owner's general goods starting from 70 was 4.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, etc [6]. Supply Analysis - As of June 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 8.93%, down 0.66 percentage points in this period, and 5.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 14.40%, down 1.01 percentage points, and in Shaanxi it was 8.35%, down 0.66 percentage points. The cold - storage trading volume in both regions was small [11]. Demand Analysis - The recent combined apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao was average, with 46 - 59 trucks this week. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on June 13 was 7.78 yuan/kg, slightly down from last Friday. The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia from 2024 - 2025 was 0.9 yuan/jin, unchanged from last week. The market arrival volume decreased, the mainstream price was stable, and the price of high - quality goods in Gansu increased. The demand for apples was weak due to the increase in seasonal fruits and rising temperatures [14]. Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The low inventory of this season's apples is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April affected the fruit - setting in parts of Shaanxi. It is predicted that the apple futures price in June will likely maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. - Single - side: Build long positions in AP10 at low levels in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [15]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, etc., from 2018 - 2023 were presented, but specific data descriptions were not detailed in the summary part [18]. Inventory and Shipment - As of June 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 8.93%, and the inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi cold - storages decreased. The cold - storage trading volume was small, and the shipment speed slowed down [11]. Spread and Basis - Data on 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, and 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis from 2019 - 2025 were presented in the form of charts, but specific data descriptions were not detailed in the summary part [25].