铅锌日评：沪铅宽幅整理，沪锌反弹空间有限-20250616

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start-up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro uncertainties [1] - For zinc, recent macro sentiment has improved, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline. However, considering supply-side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices may be limited, and a short position strategy is still recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Indicators: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 16,945 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the Shanghai lead basis was -170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 3-month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,992.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.03%; the Shanghai-London lead price ratio was 8.50, up 0.30% [1] - Industry Data: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 70.79%, a week-on-week increase of 0.33 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 32.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 72.19%, a week-on-week increase of 11.8 percentage points. As of June 13, the finished product inventory of secondary lead smelters was 25,000 tons, an increase of 2,050 tons from the previous week. The silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates has not changed [1] - Market Analysis: The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues. The demand side is gradually shifting from the off-season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down [1] Zinc - Price and Market Indicators: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 zinc ingots was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 21,815 yuan/ton, down 1.22%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 355 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME 3-month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,626.50 US dollars/ton, down 0.66%; the Shanghai-London zinc price ratio was 8.31, down 0.56% [1] - Industry Data: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 60.06%, a week-on-week increase of 0.48 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy enterprises was 59.84%, a week-on-week increase of 6.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.92%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.58 percentage points. Last week, there were overseas zinc mine tenders with a tender volume of about 10,000 tons each [1] - Market Analysis: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply-side pressure is increasing, while the demand side is in the off-season, with mixed performance in different sectors [1]