宏观周报（6月第2周）：伊以冲突升级拖累风险偏好-20250616

Macro Overview - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has negatively impacted global risk appetite[1] - The market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.60%[9] - May inflation data remains low, with CPI unchanged at -0.1% year-on-year, and PPI widening to -3.3%[10][11] Economic Indicators - May exports (in USD) grew by 4.8%, below the expected 6.2% and previous 8.1%, while imports fell by 3.4%[13] - The "rush to export" momentum was weaker than expected, with exports to the US down 34.5% year-on-year, worsening from the previous decline of 21.0%[14] - In May, new social financing totaled 2.3 trillion CNY, exceeding the market expectation of 2.1 trillion CNY, while new RMB loans were 620 billion CNY, lower than the expected 802 billion CNY[15][17] Market Sentiment - The US stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.32% and the S&P 500 down 0.39%[9] - US May CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.5%[9] - The geopolitical tensions have led to increased global risk aversion, impacting risk assets significantly[9]