能源化工板块日报-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: High - level oscillation. The core driver has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics, and the Israel - Iran conflict will dominate oil prices [3][4]. - LPG: Bullish in the short - term. The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost, and the fundamentals are improving marginally [6][8]. - L: Bearish rebound. Cost support has improved, but there are risks of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [10][11]. - PP: Bearish rebound. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [13][14]. - PVC: Bearish rebound. The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. - PX: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving in May [16][17]. - PTA: Bullish in the short - term but with a weakening fundamental outlook. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously long at low levels. Supply pressure has eased, and inventory is continuously decreasing [22][23]. Building Materials - Glass: Weak and oscillating. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [25][27]. - Soda Ash: Weakly seeking the bottom. Supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [28][30]. - Caustic Soda: Suppressed by the moving average. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening [31][33]. - Methanol: Bullish in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand [34] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: International oil prices rose significantly on June 13. WTI rose 4.78%, Brent rose 7.02%, and SC rose 4.74% [3]. - Basic Logic: The core driver is geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict is uncertain, and in extreme cases, Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply is stable, and demand is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows a decline in US commercial crude oil inventory [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price range is estimated to be between $55 - 65. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [530 - 570] [5]. LPG - Market Review: On June 13, the PG main contract closed at 4275 yuan/ton, up 3.06%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [7]. - Basic Logic: The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost. Supply has decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries has increased, and inventory has decreased [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the valuation is high. In the short - term, affected by geopolitics, buy put options. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [9]. L - Market Review: Cost support has improved, and both futures and spot prices have risen. The North China basis is - 18 (down 17 from the previous period) [11]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure will decrease next week, but the market is still consuming low - price spot inventory. It is in the traditional off - season, and there is a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are unclear, so reduce short positions. Upstream enterprises can sell for hedging when the basis is negative. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [11]. PP - Market Review: Cost support has improved, and the rebound continues. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and the East China basis is 62 (down 81 from the previous period) [14]. - Basic Logic: Demand is weak, and it is in the consumption off - season. Supply is expected to increase in June - July, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions. Downstream enterprises can buy for hedging when the basis is high. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [14]. PVC - Market Review: The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the Changzhou basis is - 109 (down 3 from the previous period) [15]. - Basic Logic: Domestic PVC supply has decreased slightly due to maintenance. Demand has weakened in some domestic industries due to the off - season and rainy season. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: There is insufficient driving force for continuous upward movement. Rebound and go short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [15]. PX - Market Review: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 6900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6780 yuan/ton (+244). The basis has converged [16]. - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas PX device loads have increased, supply pressure has increased, and demand is expected to improve. Inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. The PXN spread has compressed, and the basis has converged [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6730 - 6880] [18]. PTA - Market Review: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 5015 yuan/ton (+160), and the TA09 contract closed at 4782 yuan/ton (+162). The basis and monthly spread have strengthened [19]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing. Processing fees are high [20]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the opportunity to go short at high levels. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4880] [21]. MEG - Market Review: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 4426 yuan/ton (+79), and the EG09 contract closed at 4334 yuan/ton (+100). The basis and monthly spread are strong [22]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, so supply pressure has eased. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4270 - 4350] [24]. Glass - Market Review: Spot market prices have been reduced, the futures price has fallen under pressure, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [26]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical risks have led to a decrease in market risk appetite. Domestic private credit expansion is blocked, and the demand for glass is shrinking. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG is recommended to focus on the range of [960 - 990], and it is expected to oscillate weakly under the pressure of the 1000 - yuan mark [27]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been reduced, the futures price has broken through and fallen, the main - contract basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, and the number of valid forecasts has remained unchanged [29]. - Basic Logic: The market supply has increased as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is weak, inventory is at a high level, and the cost center has moved down [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1140 - 1180], suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [30]. Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of caustic soda has remained stable, the futures price has been weak, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [32]. - Basic Logic: The price of liquid chlorine has risen, and some enterprises may postpone maintenance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text. Methanol - Market Review: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 2439 yuan/ton (+108), and the main 09 - contract closed at 2389 yuan/ton (+99). The basis and monthly spread have changed [34]. - Basic Logic: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price has risen, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is limited [34]. - Strategy Recommendation: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text.