国常会定调“更大力度推动房地产止跌回稳”

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The State Council meeting emphasized the need for a "greater effort to stabilize the real estate market" and to construct a new development model for the industry, which is crucial for promoting stable, healthy, and high-quality development [10][11] - The report indicates that the current market requires urgent solutions to the contradictions between supply and demand, particularly regarding inventory and expectations [11] - The policy direction suggests a comprehensive approach to stimulate demand and optimize supply, with expectations of continued easing measures [11][12] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the basic point of inflection for the industry may be approaching, with expectations for incremental policy support to continue [13] - Recommended investment focus includes non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and policy relief, leading real estate companies with product advantages, regional companies with differentiated fundamentals, and second-hand intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction activity [13] Transaction Overview New Housing Market - From June 7 to June 13, the transaction area for new homes was 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%, showing a month-on-month improvement of 5.65 percentage points [17] - The cumulative inventory reached 105.99 million square meters, with accelerated absorption in second-tier cities and slower absorption in first-tier and lower-tier cities [17] Second-Hand Housing Market - During the same period, the transaction area for second-hand homes was 1.89 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.97%, reflecting a decline of 2.21 percentage points compared to the previous month [26] - The transaction area for first-tier, second-tier, and lower-tier cities was 0.50 million, 1.30 million, and 0.09 million square meters, respectively [26] Land Market - From June 2 to June 8, the total land transaction area was 1.438 million square meters, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year decrease of 1.57% [35] - The total transaction amount reached 30.7 billion yuan, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year increase of 17.93% [35]