贵金属日报：伊以冲突助推黄金避险需求-20250616

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term trends of gold and silver are diverging. Investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of Middle East geopolitical situations on risk - aversion sentiment and focus on the Fed's June FOMC meeting's statements on inflation, economy, and interest rate prospects. Short - term pullbacks are considered mid - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Last week, the trends of COMEX gold and silver continued to diverge. Gold rose due to the influx of safe - haven funds caused by the escalation of the Iran - Israel conflict. In contrast, after silver repaired the gold - silver ratio to around 90 in early June, its short - term upward momentum weakened and it continued to fluctuate and adjust. The precious metals sector also benefited from the lower - than - expected US CPI and PPI inflation data released during the week, which led to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations, and a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Additionally, China and the US held trade negotiations in the UK, and China's Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative stated that China and the US had reached a framework agreement in principle [2]. 3.2. Fund and Inventory - Long - term Fund Holdings: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 6.28 tons to 940.5 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 33.93 tons to 14,675.36 tons [3]. - Short - term Fund Holdings (as of June 10 CFTC report): Gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 424 contracts to 187,481 contracts (with 987 fewer long positions and 563 fewer short positions). Silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 5,880 contracts to 66,650 contracts (with 3,211 more long positions and 2,669 fewer short positions) [3]. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.2 tons to 1,175.4 tons; COMEX silver inventory increased by 116.4 tons to 15,503.85 tons. SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 18.177 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 92.1 tons to 1,210.1 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory (as of the week of June 6) decreased by 28.2 tons to 1,319.3 tons [3]. 3.3. This Week's Focus - Data: This week's data is generally light. Pay appropriate attention to the US retail sales data on Tuesday night, and focus on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday [4]. - Events: The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision on Tuesday. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed FOMC will announce its interest - rate decision and economic outlook summary, and at 02:03, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary - policy press conference. At 19:00 on Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision [4]. 3.4. Price and Inventory Position Tables - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE Gold Main Contract is at 794.36 yuan/gram (up 9.2 yuan, 1.17%); SGX Gold TD is at 790.86 yuan/gram (up 10.5 yuan, 1.35%); CME Gold Main Contract is at $3,452.6/ounce (up $46.2, 1.36%); SHFE Silver Main Contract is at 8,791 yuan/kg (down 28 yuan, - 0.32%); SGX Silver TD is at 8,793 yuan/kg (up 23 yuan, 0.26%); CME Silver Main Contract is at $36.37/ounce (down $0.04, - 0.11%); SHFE - TD Gold is at 3.5 yuan/gram (down 1.3 yuan, - 27.08%); SHFE - TD Silver is at - 2 yuan/kg (down 51 yuan, 145%); CME Gold - Silver Ratio is 94.9299 (up 1.3732, 1.47%) [6]. - Inventory and Position: SHFE gold inventory is 18,177 kg (up 330 kg, 1.85%); CME gold inventory is 1,175.3935 tons (unchanged, 0%); SHFE gold position is 176,354 lots (up 4,003 lots, 2.32%); SPDR gold position is 940.49 tons (up 2.58 tons, 0.28%); SHFE silver inventory is 1,210.055 tons (down 16.095 tons, - 1.31%); CME silver inventory is 15,503.851 tons (up 8.0727 tons, 0.05%); SGX silver inventory is 1,319.325 tons (down 28.215 tons, - 2.09%); SHFE silver position is 413,599 lots (down 19,071 lots, - 4.41%); SLV silver position is 14,675.362203 tons (down 53.7163 tons, - 0.36%) [16][17]. 3.5. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 98.145 (up 0.2927, 0.3%); the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate is 7.1892 (up 0.0001, 0%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42,197.79 points (down 769.83 points, - 1.79%); WTI crude oil spot is at $72.98/barrel (up $4.94, 7.26%); LmeS copper 03 is at $9,647.5/ton (down $43, - 0.44%); the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.41% (up 0.05%, 1.15%); the 10 - year US real interest rate is 2.13% (up 0.02%, 0.95%); the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.45% (down 0.01%, - 2.17%) [23].