Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report points out that due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the risk of the LPG futures market has increased. The LPG trend strength is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][7]. 3. Summary by Content LPG Fundamental Data - Futures Prices and Trading Volume: The closing price of PG2507 yesterday was 4,342 with a daily increase of 4.85%, and the night - session closing price was 4,329 with a decrease of 0.30%. The closing price of PG2508 yesterday was 4,251 with a daily increase of 5.56%, and the night - session closing price was 4,235 with a decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume of PG2507 yesterday was 174,549, an increase of 130,234 compared to the previous day, and the position was 42,156, a decrease of 5,892. The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 80,381, an increase of 68,446 compared to the previous day, and the position was 50,623, an increase of 1,536 [2]. - Price Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 378 yesterday, down from 579 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 458 yesterday, down from 659 the day before [2]. - Industry Chain开工率data: The PDH开工率 this week was 64.3%, up from 63.0% last week. The MTBE开工率 was 59.7%, up from 54.7%, and the alkylation开工率 was 48.2%, up from 45.7% [2]. Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On June 12, 2025, the expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 586 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 556 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. The expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 569 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 539 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton [9]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plan: Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance, such as Puyang Far - East Technology Co., Ltd. (15 units of capacity, maintenance started on May 12, 2023, end time to be determined), Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. (60 units of capacity, maintenance from late November 2023 to July 2025), etc. [8]. - Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plan: Many domestic liquefied gas factories are undergoing maintenance, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Factory in Shandong (full - plant maintenance, normal production of 400 tons/7, loss of 400 tons/7, from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025), etc. [10].
LPG:地缘冲突升级,盘面风险加大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-16 03:51