合成橡胶：短期偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "moderately bullish" outlook [3] Core View of the Report - In the short term, due to the continuous escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, international energy prices are rising, and synthetic rubber, as a crude oil chemical product, may follow the strong performance of oil products. In the medium term, the supply of the synthetic rubber industry chain remains high, and the supply growth rate is greater than the demand growth rate, so the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. Overall, the current main contradiction in the market may be the geopolitical conflict from a macro perspective. It is expected to be strong in the short term and face pressure after returning to the fundamentals in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the latest developments in the Middle East situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber (07 contract) was 11,390 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 206,269 lots, an increase of 84,393 lots; the open interest was 19,801 lots, a decrease of 1,302 lots; the trading volume was 1.167102 billion yuan, an increase of 483.72 million yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - the main futures contract was 310 yuan, a decrease of 255 yuan; the monthly spread of BR06 - BR07 was -70 yuan, a decrease of 250 yuan; the prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) increased by 120 yuan, 100 yuan, and 100 yuan respectively [1] - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (deliverable product) was 11,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) and (model 1712) were 11,850 yuan/ton and 10,800 yuan/ton respectively, with the former increasing by 50 yuan and the latter remaining unchanged; the mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 300 yuan and 150 yuan respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The operating rate of butadiene rubber was 66.0739%, unchanged; the theoretical full - cost of butadiene rubber was 12,079 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of butadiene rubber was -279 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry News - The latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports is about 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous period. Although some ship cargoes arrived at the port during the week but were not counted into the tank, the port inventory showed a downward trend, and attention should be paid to the circulation of the arriving goods [2] - As of June 11, 2025 (week 24), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% compared with the previous period. During this period, many domestic butadiene rubber production enterprises were under maintenance or shut down. Some traders placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual benefits led to difficulties in shipment. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [2][3]